Iowa +3

It feels absolutely crazy that Iowa has the clearest path to a Big Ten West title given what the Hawkeyes have been through this season. 

Because they’re in the thick of the race, a veteran head coach like Kirk Ferentz will have his team ready to go. 

The matchup that jumps out the most in this game is Minnesota’s rushing attack against Iowa’s run defense. 

Mohamed Ibrahim has been one of the best running backs for years, and now he’s one of the best in the country. Well, luckily for Iowa, it’s faced two of the best running backs in the conference — and in the country — over the past few weeks in Illinois’ Chase Brown and Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen. 

The Hawkeyes held both of their offenses to a combined 19 points. They rank eighth in Defensive Line Yards and fourth in tackling grade, per PFF, so I like their chances of keeping Ibrahim bottled up for the most part.

Meanwhile, their offense — which everyone thought was dead in the water, as Spencer Petras would say — has scored at least 24 points in each of the last three weeks. 

In fact, Iowa is outscoring opponents, 81-26, in that span. 

I’ll take the points with the Hawkeyes in what is setting up to be a good spot for a team that could be bound for Indianapolis. 

Under 32.5

Iowa has already played so many games with historically low totals, so why not add one more to the list?

It makes sense, though, as both teams rank top-15 in Defensive Passing Success Rate and have a penchant for stopping the run with top-20 PFF tackling grades. 

That run-stopping ability will really come in handy, as Minnesota runs the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the country at 67.6%. It actually runs the ball more than any other team when the three triple-option service academies are excluded.

Iowa, meanwhile, runs the ball on 56.3% of plays, so the clock will be ticking early and often.

Both teams also play at slow, methodical paces. The Golden Gophers rank 129th in pace, running a play every 31.4 seconds, while the Hawkeyes snap the ball every 28.9 seconds and rank 111th in pace.

Everything points to the under.

Pick of the Week: Colorado State +22 vs. Air Force

When a service academy is laying more than three touchdowns, its opponent is always worth a look.

This one just happens to come at a good time, as things are finally starting to come together for Jay Norvell and his Air Raid offense. The Rams have accrued more than 370 yards of total offense in each of the past two weeks, including a 468-yard outburst against San Jose State two weeks ago. 

That happens to line up with when quarterback Clay Millen started to find a groove. After suffering an injury in late September, Millen returned in late October and had to shake the rust off with two weak performances. Since then, he’s thrown for at least 250 yards in both games.

If the Rams can find their way into the end zone a couple of times, that would be huge against a team that runs the ball and bleeds clock more than any team in the country.

Finally, according to Action Network’s Stuckey, service academies are 20-30-2 since 2005 when laying more than three touchdowns.

I snagged Colorado State at +22 earlier in the week and would bet it to +21.