What once seemed so secure is now so out of reach.

I’m referring, of course, to Iowa’s chances of winning the Big Ten West this season. The Hawkeyes started the season 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the conference. The division title that has eluded the program since 2015 seemed to finally be here, especially with Wisconsin only 3-3 at the time. That was actually an improvement from the Badgers’ 1-3 start.

But now, with Iowa and Wisconsin both having 5-2 conference records — and the Badgers having won the head-to-head matchup between the teams — it seems like Iowa will just miss out on winning the West. Again.

Wisconsin controls its own destiny to reach Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game for the fourth time in six years. The Badgers simply need to beat Nebraska and Minnesota over the next two weeks and they would be division champions. The Hawkeyes would need to win their next two games and hope for a Badger slip-up to win the West.

Nebraska is better than its record, and Minnesota put up a good fight against Iowa, but I’d still pick Wisconsin in both of those games.

The Badgers have a 75.8 percent chance to win the West, per simulations run by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. Iowa’s chances? Only 18.8 percent.

Wisconsin is heating up at the perfect time of the season. As far as Iowa? The Hawkeyes are playing better than what we saw during their two-game losing streak. But that’s not saying much. And even if Iowa does blow out Illinois and Nebraska (both teams that could give the Hawkeyes a sneaky good game), that won’t really matter if Wisconsin doesn’t lose.

And I don’t think the Badgers are going to.