At (extremely) long last, the 2020 Iowa caucuses are just 10 days away. I’ve been writing about the presidential-nomination race since the fall of 2017. I wrote about the campaign outlooks for more than 20 candidates, but this close to the decision time, Iowa Democrats seem to have narrowed it down to four viable choices.

The general election is still over nine months away, but at least we’ll know who won Iowa in just in a few more days.

Let’s look at the top four and how they got to this point.

Former Vice President Joe Biden

Looking at Biden’s poll numbers, most people would conclude he’s the favorite (albeit a weak one) to capture the most delegates on caucus night. He’s floating around the low 20s in terms of percentage points, a few points higher than his rival Democrats.

And he isn’t just holding onto residual name recognition. The former vice president dipped as low as third place and into the mid-teens in early December, according to the FiveThirtyEight poll tracker, only to make a comeback in recent weeks.

Biden isn’t really consolidating his party’s moderate wing either. His return to the top coincided with a small surge from fellow centrist Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who’s now in a distant fifth. But the Klobu-charge hasn’t seemed to put a dent in Biden’s strong chance to finish first.

Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders

America’s favorite socialist is no stranger to being in second place in the Hawkeye State behind an establishment figure, and he has a chance to win it this time around.

After an October heart attack threatened the 78-year-old’s candidacy, Sanders rebounded and proved he’s still in this thing. He’s even polled first in a few recent polls, including the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from earlier this month.

The biggest potential problem from Sanders is in delegate count. Crossing the necessary 15 percent viability threshold to earn delegates won’t be a problem in Democratic strongholds such as Iowa City. However, his margin is close enough to the line that support may swing closer to the middle in other areas.

Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren

Back in October, it looked like Warren might continue her months-long steady climb in and cruise to a fairly huge win. Then her hot streak started to cool with the Iowa weather.

A short-term frontrunner is nothing new in presidential primaries. Ben Carson rose and fell in 2016, and Michelle Bachmann in 2012, and Rudy Guiliani in 2008, and Howard Dean in 2004, and you get the idea.

But Warren isn’t out of it yet. The Register Iowa poll had her in second place, and she’s not that far off from Sanders. If she can scrap together just a couple more percentage points before Feb. 4, she might be able to close out the Vermont senator and leave Iowa reinstated as the top choice of progressive Democrats.

Former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg

Depending on the pollster, the former mayor is in second, third, or fourth place. That’s not bad for a guy whose only electoral experience is running the fourth-largest city in Indiana.

Like Warren, Buttigieg’s time in the sun seems to have expired. Looking at the poll tracker from RealClearPolitics, his last day in first place was Dec. 31, 2019. It appears Boot Edge Edge is so last decade.

He has another similarity to Warren in that he still has a decent shot of finishing strong despite his recent drop-off. He has a chance to take votes away from a lot of coalitions on caucus night. He can pull college-educated whites from Warren, electability-focused moderates from Biden, and the 8-ish percent of Klobuchar supporters.

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