Pete Ruden’s (13-19-1, $1,200) Picks:

Iowa -5.5

With its victory over Wisconsin last week, Nebraska clinched a bowl for the first time since 2016. Now, it has to head to Iowa City for a night game on Black Friday in freezing temperatures.

This is a terrible spot for the Huskers, who are probably still celebrating their first bowl bid since the mid-2010s.

Plus, the Hawkeyes have some big advantages when it comes to the ground game. Nebraska sits outside the top 65 in Both Defensive Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards, so expect Kaleb Johnson to have another big game to close out the regular season.

It’s also worth noting that prior to the win over the Badgers, Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola had been struggling. He had thrown for less than 200 yards in three straight games to go along with two touchdowns and four interceptions.

This Iowa defense comes into this game inside the top 40 in Passing Success Rate allowed and ranks third nationally in Pro Football Focus Coverage grade, so it wouldn’t be shocking if the true freshman struggled again.

Iowa also ranks sixth in the country in Special Teams SP+ compared to Nebraska’s rank of 112th. Iowa has a significant edge if this game comes down to the margins.

Give me the Hawkeyes to close the regular season on a high note in a solid situational spot.

Over 39.5

It wouldn’t surprise me if both offenses found a bit of success here. 

Iowa boasts the nation’s second-leading rusher in Kaleb Johnson, who should find some success against a Nebraska stop unit that’s average at best against the run.

Meanwhile, Nebraska finds itself in the same boat offensively. 

The Huskers have a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield with Dante Dowdell and Emmett Johnson, who can continuously move the chains against an Iowa defense that sits outside the top 80 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards.

I also wouldn’t be shocked if Nebraska hits an explosive or two through the air considering Iowa’s defense hasn’t been as rigid in that area and now enters this game without Jermari Harris on the perimeter.

For what it’s worth, the Hawkeyes have cashed the over in nine of their 10 games. Nebraska, meanwhile, has gone over this total in its last three games and four of its last five.

Lock of the Week: Kansas ML vs. Baylor

Kansas might be the best team in the Big 12, and it’s still fighting just to make a bowl.

Five of the Jayhawks’ six losses have come by six points or less, and four of those have come by four points or fewer.

Since its last loss to Kansas State on Oct. 26, Kansas has rattled off three straight wins over top-20 teams, doing significant damage to the College Football Playoff hopes of Iowa State, BYU and Colorado.

The biggest catalyst has been the offense. The Jayhawks have figured things out quickly and now rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate, 15th in Passing Success Rate, sixth in Offensive Line Yards and fifth in Finishing Drives.

They should run right through a Baylor defense that sits outside the top 60 in Passing Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Finishing Drives. 

While the Bears should find ways to move the ball, I expect the cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant to step up and limit the damage Sawyer Robertson can do through the air.

Plus, Baylor has already clinched bowl eligibility, while Kansas is still fighting to extend its season.

Give me what might be the hottest team in the country in a game it needs. Rock Chalk!

Matt McGowan’s (17-16, $1,549) Picks:

Iowa -5.5 

If Nebraska hadn’t clinched a bowl game last week, I would take the Huskers to cover, but with six wins on the season, head coach Matt Rhule’s squad might not have the same edge. The Hawkeyes will have motivation on their side, as seniors Jay Higgins, Nick Jackson, and more will want to end their careers on a high note. 

Outside of emotions, I believe Iowa can get the best of Cornhusker quarterback Dylan Raiola, who has thrown for 10 interceptions on the season and isn’t a threat on the run. This lack of mobilty will serve Iowa well. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker will have a plan for the first-year Raiola, and with a raucous Kinnick crowd, the turnovers will continue to pile on. 

It’s also worth noting that Nebraska allows two sacks a game. If Iowa can get pressure on Raiola, the Huskers won’t stand a chance. 

Over 39.5 

Cold weather and winds may hamper a passing game, but that’s not Iowa’s style anyway. Nebraska enters Friday with a similar run defense as Maryland, yieling 110 rushing yards per game, but after seeing how Kaleb Johnson and Kamari Moulton thrashed the Terrapin front for a combined 200 yards, I could see the same happening Kinnick. 

Even with a home crowd, I still think this Hawkeye defense concedes some big plays to the Huskers have four receivers averaging at least 13 yards per catch. The Hawkeye secondary will have to watch out for senior wideout Isaiah Neyor, who has over 400 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Iowa has only had one game with less than 40 total points, and I don’t believe this one will be an exception. 

Lock of the Week: Notre Dame -7 vs. USC 

Considering my hatred of Notre Dame, I don’t make this pick lightly. Say what you want about the Irish’s schedule this season and their hilarious loss to Northern Illinois, but the squad from South Bend has been heating up as of late. Over its last six games, Notre Dame has a plus-13 turnover ratio and has covered the spread in each of those contests. Against a USC squad that has 10 interceptions and 15 fumbles on the year, I don’t see that trend disappearing. Also, with their generational wealth, Notre Dame fans travel well, so this one should feel like a home game.