Pete Ruden’s (5-10, $456) Picks: 

Iowa -2.5

This is a little bit of a letdown spot for Washington after the Huskies exacted revenge against Michigan following their loss in the National Championship a season ago.

Meanwhile, Iowa will be looking to take out some anger after letting a 7-0 halftime deficit against Ohio State turn into a 35-7 loss.

It’s not like the Hawkeyes struggled mightily on the ground against the Buckeyes. They still put up 116 yards on 4.3 yards per carry, while Kaleb Johnson ran for 86 yards and a score.

If a team wants to find success against Washington, it starts on the ground. The Huskies rank 67th in defensive rushing success rate and 84th in defensive line yards — two areas where Iowa will have major advantages. 

Things won’t come easy through the air against a Washington defense that leads the nation in Defensive Passing Success Rate and ranks 14th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading, but that’s not Iowa’s bread and butter anyway.

On the other side, Iowa’s defense can do enough to contain Will Rogers through the air and Jonah Coleman on the ground. In fact, the Hawkeyes rank in the top-15 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback allowed and EPA per rush allowed.

Give me the Hawkeyes under a field goal in what should be a raucous Kinnick Stadium environment for the Huskies’ first Big Ten trip to Iowa City.

Over 41.5

Both offenses have a relatively clear advantage here.

First off, Kaleb Johnson should have the opportunity to break off some big runs against Washington’s porous run defense, which is miles behind its pass defense. The Huskies give up over five yards per carry and rank 88th nationally in expected points added per rush allowed, so Johnson should have no problem getting the scoring started.

Luckily for Iowa, it runs the ball 61% of the time, so it won’t test Washington’s stout secondary more than it needs to.

On the other side, Washington’s offense comes into this game at 14th in adjusted EPA and 12th in overall offensive success rate.

The Huskies also rank third in the Big Ten in total offense.

While Iowa’s defense is undoubtedly strong, the Huskies are coming off a game in which they put up 27 against one of the Big Ten’s better defenses in Michigan.

Both sides have avenues to moving the ball and putting points on the board, so it shouldn’t take a whole lot to clear this low total.

For what it’s worth, Iowa games have eclipsed this over/under in four of their five games this season.

Lock of the Week: Hawaii +21 vs. Boise State

The Rainbow Warriors can keep up with the Broncos on the island here.

Boise State running back and Heisman Trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty will undoubtedly get his on the ground, as he does every game, but this Hawaii defense is no slouch against the run. The Rainbow Warriors sit 42nd nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 14th in Havoc, which means there’s a real chance they end multiple plays in the backfield before they get started.

On the other side, Boise’s defense has been far from impressive. The Broncos have given up 30 points or more in three of their four games against FBS competition, including 30 to a Spencer Petras-led Utah State offense that averaged just 16.7 points per game against FBS opponents before Week 6.

Timmy Chang’s Run-and-Shoot offense can be a real problem for opponents without formidable defenses, and I expect that to be the case again on Saturday. 

Boise State ranks 106th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and will now face quarterback Brayden Schager and a Hawaii offense that’s fourth in the Mountain West in passing.

While I don’t expect the Bows to upset Jeanty and Co. on the island, they have enough advantages to keep this within three touchdowns.

Matt McGowan’s (9-6, $805) Picks:

Iowa -2.5 

While I know it’s not practical to do so, I’ve got to base my choice off emotions in this one. Washington is riding high after beating a ranked Michigan squad at home last week, while Iowa is most likely fuming after continuing its recent ineptitude against top-25 foes. Plus, the home-field advantage should be emphasized in this matchup.

No offense to the PAC-12, but the conference doesn’t have any environments that mirror Kinnick Stadium on a Saturday. This season, the Huskies’ only road Big Ten matchup has been Rutgers – a 21-18 loss where the Scarlet Knights piled on 184 rushing yards and forced three missed field goals. The Hawkeyes not only have a better ground game than the Scarlet Knights but also have a far more intimidating home turf. In a contest projected at less than a field goal, it’s always a safe bet to side with a ticked-off home team looking to make a statement. 

Over 41.5 

It’s crazy to say, but the over has become a safe bet for the Hawkeyes, especially when it hovers around 40. Iowa is averaging 27 points per game while Washington checks in at 25.5. Besides basic math, both squads can easily exploit each other’s weaknesses. 

The Huskies struggled against the run, conceding 130.5 rushing yards per game – situation them at 58th in the FBS. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes sit 66th in the FBS in passing defense, yielding 210.4 yards per game – a sharp decline from their prowess last season. 

These are ripe conditions for Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to continue his dominance and for Washington quarterback Will Rogers to continue his passing production with wideout duo Denzel Boston and Gilles Jackson. The tandem is each averaging more than 10 yards per catch on over 30 grabs this season.

I’m not saying this will be a barn burner, but certainly enough to hit the over. 

No. 8 Tennessee -15.5 vs. Florida 

I always find comfort in betting on a team coming off an upset loss. The head coach chewed out their players in the locker room, most likely ran a tortuous couple of practices during the week, and instilled in their team an unrelenting frustration and anger that will be taken out on their unsuspecting upcoming opponent. 

Such can be said for No. 8 Tennessee heading to Gainesville for a matchup against Florida. The Volunteers were ranked No. 4 last week but suffered an inexplicable 19-14 road loss to unranked Arkansas. The 14 points were their lowest-scoring output of the season, but what’s encouraging has been the defense – the 19 points were the most conceded in 2024. 

Defensive coordinator Tim Banks’ squads rank second in the FBS in total defense, rushing defense, and 15th in passing defense. Meanwhile, Florida sets 95th in total defense, yielding 395 yards per game. The Gators collected two straight victories – but against awful Mississippi State and mid-tier UCF. Plus, all the preseason hype in Gainesville is gone after the Gators’ horrid start. Head coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat, and this will be a test to prove he’s worth keeping around, but that desperation is nothing against what should be a fuming Tennessee squad looking to prove it belongs in the playoff. 

And if it’s any consolation, Florida has lost both its games against ranked foes this season by an average of 18.5 points.