Pete Ruden’s (3-9, $265) Picks: 

Iowa +20.5

This just feels like the kind of game Iowa is going to try to muddy up. I think it has the potential to do just that.

Iowa runs the ball 62% of the time and ranks 111th in seconds per play, so its goal will likely be to keep an Ohio State offense that sits third nationally in scoring off the field.

Leaning on the Big Ten’s leading rusher Kaleb Johnson might actually be the Hawkeyes’ most viable game plan. 

While Ohio State’s defense is solid across the board, it ranks just 45th in defensive line yards and 43rd in Pro Football Focus’ tackle grading. Expect Johnson to rip off a couple of big runs once he gets to the second level.

On the Buckeyes’ side, I don’t necessarily trust Will Howard to do much. Despite playing with some of the best receivers in the conference in Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, he has put up very pedestrian numbers.

Now, he has to face a secondary that ranks sixth nationally in PFF passing grade.

Ohio State does boast the best running back tandem in the nation. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have put up over 650 yards and nine touchdowns combined in four games, but the Hawkeyes ranked 15th in expected points added per rush allowed and second in rushing explosiveness allowed.

While they might not shut the duo down completely, they can contain them.

With a slow pace and a run-heavy game plan, I think Iowa can at least hang around here. However, I’d wait to see if a +21 pops in the market before grabbing the 20.5.

Under 45

The winning team in each of the past two editions of this game has scored 54 and 55 points. I don’t see that happening this time around. 

While Iowa’s offense has certainly improved a bit under Tim Lester, its scheme isn’t built to run up the score. Running the ball over 60% of the time while taking nearly 30 seconds to run a play doesn’t scream “offensive explosion.”

Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, Ohio State doesn’t love giving up touchdowns either. The Buckeyes lead the country in defensive finishing drives, which means opponents are settling for field goals rather than touchdowns more often than not when they cross the 40-yard line.

Well, on the other side, Ohio State might not have many opportunities either. Along with ranking second in PFF’s run defense grade, the Hawkeyes come in at second in defensive quality drives — a drive that either features 10 plays, goes over three minutes or racks up 50 yards.

I expect Iowa to make this game as short as possible with defense winning the day.

Lock the Week: Vanderbilt +24 vs. Alabama

This is a heck of a letdown spot for Alabama after one of the biggest regular-season college football games in recent memory.

The Crimson Tide outlasted then-No. 1 Georgia, 41-34, after blowing a 28-0 lead earlier in the game. This team has to be gassed after all of the build-up and on-field play.

Now, Bama has to make the trip to Nashville to take on a Vanderbilt team that has been — dare I say — fun in its first four games of the season.

When they last took the field, the Commodores took No. 9 Missouri to double-overtime before losing on a missed chip-shot field goal.

Then, they had a week off to prep for the big, bad Tide, while Alabama was focused on the biggest game of its regular season. Because of its focus on Georgia, it wouldn’t shock me if half of the roster had no clue that Vandy was the next team on the schedule.

Plus, ’Dores aren’t a bad team to back as a big underdog. With Diego Pavia and Jerry Kill coming over from New Mexico State, Vandy plays like a service academy. It runs the ball 65% of the time (19th-highest rush rate) while letting 29.6 seconds run off the clock in between plays (114th).

The Commodores have also shown they can rely on their bread and butter, ranking 33rd in rushing success rate. 

They should hold their own against Bama’s run game as well. The Tide hands it off 61% of the time, but Vandy comes in at 12th in defensive rushing success rate and 25th in defensive line yards.

Give me a Vandy team that matches up well against a Bama team in a terrible spot.

Matt McGowan’s (6-6, $528) Picks: 

Ohio State -20.5 

I don’t have faith in the Hawkeyes in this one, especially on the road. Iowa may keep it close for two quarters, but I project Ohio State will pull away after halftime, as it has done all season, winning four games by an average of 42 points. Yes, Iowa has a star running back in Kaleb Johnson, but Ohio State is by far the best rushing defense on the schedule, conceding 61.8 yards per game. Johnson can peak with 100 yards and a score, but that won’t keep pace with a loaded Buckeye offensive arsenal. 

The Hawkeyes have been plagued by explosive plays this season, and the Buckeyes will continue such woes, especially against man coverage. Star wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka average more than 15 yards per catch while running backs Quidshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson average more than eight yards per carry. There are simply too many weapons to keep track of, and Ohio State will make this one a laugher. 

Under 45 

Even if Iowa gets shut out and continues its streak of offensive ineptitude against ranked opponents, I can’t see the Hawkeyes yielding more than 45 points. Of course, the last time they did that was against Ohio State – in Columbus. OK, so history isn’t on my side, but the Buckeyes’ quarterback that year was CJ Stroud – the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Nothing against current OSU quarterback Will Howard (I’m always partial to Kansas State), but the pair don’t belong in the same sentence. Nevertheless, the 2024 Buckeyes can score quickly, but the Hawkeyes’ slow pace will keep them off the field. 

Iowa ranks 17th in the nation in rushing attempts per game and sits 12th in the nation in time of possession. Avoid turnovers – the Hawkeyes only have two this season – and even in a blowout, this one should stay in the under. 

Lock of the Week: Army -11 vs. Tulsa 

Support the troops. That’s it. That’s my explanation. 

Ok, not really. While it’s important to be patriotic and root for the Black Knights on their undefeated season in 2024, there’s more to their success than national pride. For instance, Army boasts the No. 1 rushing offense in the FBS, averaging 371.2 yards per game. Granted, keeping the ball on the ground is literally all Army does, but it’s also superb on third down – converting on 57.4 percent of its attempts – good enough for second in the nation.  Even in scoring offense, the Black Knights rank 30th, and to boot, aren’t prone to mistakes, sitting behind only Iowa in penalties per game. 

Meanwhile, Tulsa ranks 61st against the run and gives up 416.8 total yards per game. Army may be on the road, but who’s to say the troops don’t travel? I can’t wait for an Army-Navy game that could potentially decide a playoff spot.