1. Points on the board
While it may sound dumb to say scoring will be important if Iowa wants to pull off the upset, it’s especially true in the Hawkeyes’ case. Iowa hasn’t put up a point against a ranked foe since Oct. 22, 2022 – ironically against Ohio State on the road.
Even though it may seem like destiny for the Hawkeyes to break their streak of goose eggs on Saturday, doing so won’t be easy. The Buckeyes rank third in the nation in first downs allowed and second in yards conceded per game. 247 Sports’ five-star Alabama transfer Caleb Downs brought plenty of hype in the preseason, and the second-year safety is joined by productive veterans in the secondary.
Senior safety Lathan Ransom is second on the team with 20 tackles and has two forced fumbles while Denzel Burke owns a team-best two interceptions. Even with an extra week of preparation from the bye week, driving the ball down the field won’t be easy. Turnovers would be catastrophic.
2. Blocking
Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson has carried the offense to three wins this season, and the Hawkeyes will need him to continue his production back in his home state of Ohio. The junior ranks top-five in the FBS in rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing touchdowns, and even when the opposing defense keys in on him, the back still excels. According to CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli, Johnson averages 10.4 yards per attempt against stacked boxes, or when eight defenders line up within five yards of the line of scrimmage. For Iowa tight end Luke Lachey, these stats aren’t surprising.
“I feel like Kaleb does a good job of making a small hole look like a big hole,” he said. “We’re just trying to go put our pads on them, move them around, and give them as many opportunities as you can. He does a great job with his breakaway speed.”
If Johnson wants to continue this trend against a Buckeye team conceding just 61.8 rushing yards per game, the Hawkeye offensive line and receivers will have to block like there’s no tomorrow.
3. Third-down conversions
Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara knows a thing or two about Ohio State. Over three seasons with the Michigan Wolverines, McNamara has been a part of two victories over the Buckeyes, including starting under center in a 42-27 romp in 2021. While the quarterback maintained that his keys for victories were mainly the same for any opponent, he still noted that third down would be at the crux of any success on Saturday.
“I think it comes down to third down conversions because that’s what keeps drives alive,” he said. “If we can get third and manageable, that’s good. You know, we have a higher chance at success.”
Moving the chains on third down will keep the Hawkeyes on the field and prevent the Buckeyes explosive offense from taking over. Iowa ranks 42nd in the nation in third-down conversions while Ohio State slots in at 12th on third-down defense at a rate of just 27.6 percent.
4. Second-half performance
Ohio State hasn’t had the strongest of schedules so far this season, only playing one Power Four school in Michigan State last week. In three of their four games, the Buckeyes have led by 17 points or less at halftime, but any concerns of an upset were squashed over the final two quarters. Ohio State hasn’t allowed a point in the second half, overpowering its foes, 91-0.
“I know this: If we’re playing in that hole of a hole in the second half, it’s going to be really difficult,” Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said. “It’s going to be hard to stay in any game plan other than you’ve got to score quick, and that’s good for the defense typically.”
Chances are the Hawkeyes will be within at most two possessions at the halftime whistle, but the final 30 minutes will be a testing ground to see if Iowa can finally play a complete game. Keeping the defense rested and balancing between an effective run and pass game will be keys to doing so.
5. Time of possession
While the Buckeyes have had more lopsided scores than the Hawkeyes this season, they trail in time of possession by 12 minutes. This is in part due to Ohio State’s ability to score in a handful of plays. Top receiving tandem Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka are averaging 19.2 and 17.2 yards per catch, respectively. The first-year Smith has three grabs of at least 40 yards this season.
“He’s making it look pretty easy,” Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins said of Smith. “He’s one of those guys where we have to know where he’s at at all times. Locate him, and see where he’s aligned. We understand he’s their big play guy, a special athlete.”
The Hawkeyes need to slow the game down in order to give the Buckeyes less time to score. At the very least force Ohio State into opting for big plays rather than utilizing the run-pass option. As McNamara mentioned, third downs will be critical, but as will positive yardage on the prior downs.