Pete Ruden’s (2-7, $179) Picks: 

Iowa -2.5

After falling short of a cover against Troy, I think Iowa will bounce back in its Big Ten opener under the Huntington Bank Stadium lights. 

Simply put, I don’t see Minnesota’s offense creating much momentum in this game. 

While the Golden Gophers rank top-40 in both passing success rate and rushing success rate, those stats are skewed due to a schedule that has featured FCS Rhode Island, a mid-tier ACC team in North Carolina, and a Nevada team that sits at 110th in Action Network’s betting power ratings.

Despite facing significantly inferior competition in two games, Minnesota quarterback Max Brosmer has topped 200 passing yards just once against Rhode Island, and its leading rusher has cracked 100 yards in only one game against Nevada.

Now, the Gophers will take a huge step up in competition against an Iowa team that ranks 27th in defensive finishing drives and 13th in quality drives allowed. 

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s offensive line should struggle mightily. The Gophers come into this game with a mark of 102nd in offensive line yards, while Iowa sits 28th in that category defensively. 

The Hawkeyes have also been fundamentally sound, ranking 17th in PFF tackle grading and ninth in PFF coverage grading despite some blown coverages in the past few games.

While Minnesota’s defense has been solid, it folded when it faced one of the nation’s premier backs in North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. The Tar Heels’ bell cow ran for 129 yards on 30 carries. I don’t see the Gophers getting much better against Kaleb Johnson, the nation’s leading rusher.

This is also a clear revenge spot in a trophy game. After getting robbed last year by a phantom fair catch call (it wasn’t close to a fair catch), I expect Iowa to give maximum effort to bring Floyd of Rosedale home.

Action Network’s betting power ratings make Iowa a 5-point favorite when factoring in Minnesota’s home-field advantage, so there’s still a bit of value at this number under a field goal.

Under 35.5

The story of this game should be the defenses.

On one side, Minnesota ranks fifth nationally in scoring defense (6.3 points per game) and fifth in total defense (186.3 yards per game), albeit against a weak schedule thus far. On the other side, Iowa has given up 13.7 PPG and 267.7 YPG, which are both top-35.

Minnesota’s inability to generate a push up front will put a lot of pressure on Brosmer, a former FCS quarterback, who’s averaging just 178 passing yards per game with one touchdown and one interception against FBS competition.

While I expect Kaleb Johnson to move the chains for the Hawkeyes, I don’t believe Cade McNamara can do much better than Brosmer if he’s forced to put the ball in the air. When facing FBS opponents, the Michigan transfer has averaged 137.5 yards per game with two picks and no touchdowns this season.

Both sides also run their offenses at extremely slow paces. Minnesota ranks 128th in seconds per play (32.2), while Iowa comes in at 101st (29.3).

Combine that with a rush rate that’s over 56% for both teams, and I expect the clock to run early and often on Saturday. 

Lock of the Week: Louisiana +3.5 vs. Tulane

I’ll take the 3.5 points with the home ’dog here in a bad spot for Tulane.

The Ragin’ Cajuns disposed of Grambling and Kennesaw State by a combined score of 74-20, and although Tulane is a big step up in competition, Louisiana had a whole week to prepare with a bye in Week 3.

The Green Wave, meanwhile, is coming off two grueling losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma — two nationally-ranked power-conference opponents.

Plus, next week, they have a big conference opener against a solid South Florida team running a Veer-and-Shoot offense that’s fun for everyone except opposing defensive coordinators.

It wouldn’t shock me a bit if Tulane comes out a bit flat in a sandwich spot after two prominent games before its AAC opener.

Plus, Louisiana has been solid offensively with two running backs averaging over 6.5 yards per carry and a healthy Ben Wooldridge at quarterback. He has mostly avoided making big mistakes thus far, which will be big in a spot like this.

It’s a small sample against two inferior teams, but the Ragin’ Cajuns still rank fifth nationally in passing success Rate and second in quality drives.

I have to take the points with Louisiana here. 

Matt McGowan’s (4-5, $352) Picks

Iowa -2.5 

Minnesota will finally take on a top-tier defense, and I don’t believe it can succeed. The Gophers rank 99th in the nation in terms of sacks allowed while quarterback Max Brosmer isn’t prolific in the air, having thrown for less than 200 yards in each of his starts against FBS foes. In addition, no matter how talented a running back Darius Taylor is, backfield stars go to die against the Hawkeyes. Kyle Monangai of Rutgers couldn’t do it. Neither could Michigan’s duo of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, who combined for less than 100 yards. Hawkeye defensive linemen Aaron Graves, Ethan Hurkett, and Co. should have a fun time up north in the Twin Cities.   

To put it simply, the Hawkeye defense will keep Iowa in this game, and given the extra motivation over last year’s heartbreaker, I’m willing to take a field goal in this one. Speaking of field goals, Iowa kicker Drew Stevens has been money so far this season *knocks wood* while his Minnesota counterpart Dragan Kesich, the reigning Big Ten Kicker of the Year, is only 5-of-9. Just throwing it out there. 

Under 35.5 

This matchup is a romantic reminder of the Big Ten West. A lot of running the ball and not a lot of scoring. Minnesota hasn’t let up a point since August while Iowa has been dominant against the run. The weather may be warm, which scares me a bit, but no one will light up the scoreboard. 

Each team’s biggest strength is the run game and conversely, the ability to stop the run. This is the perfect storm for a game that will make early 20th-century football jealous. 

Lock of the Week: Oregon State -5.5 vs. Purdue 

To be perfectly honest, part of the reason I chose this game is because of the sheer sicko aspect of it. Who doesn’t love a mediocre Big Ten team traveling more than 2,000 miles out west to play a PAC-2 squad? The way college football is evolving, this feels like a conference game, but alas its not. Plus, it’s broadcast on the CW Network. Who doesn’t love that? 

Nevertheless, the trip from West Lafayette to Corvallis does play into my decision-making. Indiana is on Eastern Time – which is just so stupid – while Oregon operates in Pacific, so the road team will be a bit behind off the bat. 

The Boilermakers showed promise in their shutout victory over Indiana State in Week 1, but their 66-7 dismantling at the hands of Notre Dame tells me all I need to know. On the other hand, the Beavers were also crushed in Week 3, falling, 49-14, against rival Oregon. Yet that score doesn’t tell the whole story. The Beavers led in time of possession, avoided turning the ball over, and converted nearly half of their third downs – all against the No. 9 team in the nation. 

In my opinion, converting on third down is a key aspect to winning football games, and this is where Oregon State holds a clear advantage. The Beavers rank 21st in the FBS with a 56 percent conversion percentage while the Boilermakers languish outside the top-100 at 33 percent. Oregon State may have lost its head coach to the Big Ten this season, but it will get revenge on Saturday night, sandwiched between episodes of “The Flash” and “Batwoman.”