Pete Ruden’s (0-0) Picks: 

Illinois State +22.5

I see this game playing out like Iowa’s season opener against Utah State last season. The Hawkeyes essentially opened up the playbook for a quarter or so, got out to a 17-3 lead by halftime, and put on cruise control.

Why change it up this year? 

With a 12-team College Football Playoff, Iowa’s chances to make the expanded bracket are elevated. What could ruin that at a moment’s notice? A loss to Iowa State.

The Cyclones will make the trip to Iowa City in Week 2, so there’s no way Iowa will want to put a lot of its new offense — which Iowa State has never seen before — on film.

Plus, with Kirk Ferentz serving a one-game suspension, acting head coach Seth Wallace could easily take a “get in, get out” approach, shortening the game by keeping the ball in the ground. With a big spread and low total, that’ll only help Illinois State stay within the number.

On the other side, it’s not like the Redbirds don’t have talent of their own. They enter the season ranked No. 19 in the FCS poll and have two quarterbacks who could stay within striking distance. 

Tommy Rittenhouse, who spent most of last season backing up former Minnesota signal-caller Zach Annexstad, impressed in limited action. He started the Redbirds’ final two games against Murray State and North Dakota, throwing for 406 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions with a 62.5% completion percentage.

Illinois State also brought in Kansas State transfer Jake Rubley, who was rated the 12th-best pro-style quarterback in the Class of 2021 by Rivals.

It’s worth noting the Redbirds went 0-4 in one-possession games as well, meaning positive regression could be looming.

All Illinois State has to do is not lose by more than three possessions. Given Iowa’s offensive struggles and who the Hawkeyes have on deck, I’ll take my chances.

Under 41

This is one of my favorite bets of the week, and I played it immediately when totals opened.

Iowa’s offense was offensive to the game of football last year. While I expect an improvement under new offensive coordinator Tim Lester — I mean, how could it get worse? — I don’t think we see a full renaissance.

Unsurprisingly, the Hawkeyes finished last season ranked dead last in Success Rate and Explosiveness, as well as 126th in Finishing Drives. With a new offensive coordinator and a quarterback who hasn’t played a real game in 11 months, I’m going to take my chances and guess they won’t be firing on all cylinders in Week 1.

Plus, with the Cy-Hawk rivalry on deck, I could see Iowa run its full offense to take a comfortable lead before going vanilla and keeping as much off film as possible.

On the other side, I don’t have any questions about Iowa’s defense. The Hawkeyes will again field a top-five stop unit with an extremely experienced bunch that returns 96% of tackles, 85% of pass breakups, and 94% of pressures.

I’ll get back to one of my favorite college football traditions here: betting on Iowa unders.

Lock the the Week: Syracuse -17 vs. Ohio

Few teams in college football have been personally attacked by the transfer portal more than Ohio.

The Bobcats return just 25% of their offense and 32% of their defense — and the offensive losses are especially significant. 

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke (Indiana), running back Sieh Bangura (Minnesota), wide receiver Miles Cross (Indiana), wide receiver Jacoby Jones (UCF), tight end Tyler Foster (Oklahoma State) and tight end Will Kacmarek (Ohio State) all departed for Power Four programs.

Oh, and leading receiver Sam Wiglusz is gone too. 

That means Ohio’s — checks notes — leading passer, leading rusher, and top seven receivers are no longer on the roster.

Now, the Bobs have to travel to Syracuse to face a rejuvenated Orange team under Fran Brown.

Unfortunately for Ohio, Syracuse has some weapons. 

The Orange will finally have an upgrade with former Ohio State starter Kyle McCord moving to the ACC, and now he has Oronde Gadsden II (54 passes, 891 yards, six touchdowns in last healthy season in 2022) and Justus Ross-Simmons (45 catches, 745 yards, three touchdowns in 2023 with Colorado State) to throw to.

That’s bad news for a secondary that returns just 24% of its pass breakups.

Give me the Orange to roll in Week 1.

Matt McGowan’s (0-0) Picks: 

Iowa -22.5

I may not be optimistic about the over, but I’ll at least be hopeful about Iowa covering the spread on Saturday. While season-opening games always feature rust to the offense, the Iowa defense will pick up the slack and give the Hawkeyes some easy scoring opportunities given the Redbirds’ inadequacy under center. 

While Mason King is a solid running back and worthy of extra attention, I’ve seen Iowa shut down runners just as good, if not better. Just look at Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen, Minnesota’s Darius Taylor, and Michigan’s Blake Corum. I’m predicting a 27-3 game and a rare off day for King. 

Under 41

I’m sorry, but I’ll believe it when I see it. And when there’s money on the line, in no way am I going to trust Iowa to score points. I trust its defense to keep an opponent to six points or less, but that just means the offense has more work to do to hit the number. Plus, Illinois State, while an FCS school, won’t just roll over on defense. 

The Redbirds play a 3-4 defensive scheme that Iowa isn’t used to, and ranked 22nd in the FCS last season in scoring defense, yielding 20.45 points per game. Head coach Brock Spack’s squad returns several veterans in the secondary, such as Keondre Jackson, who led the team with 76 tackles and earned an all-conference honorable mention nod. Even if Iowa scores 35 points – which I’ll be floored if they do – it won’t be enough. 

Lock of the Week: James Madison -8 vs. Charlotte 

Is James Madison a vastly different team than last year? Yes. Is it still a contender in the Sun Belt? For sure. Similar to Washington, the Dukes’ head coach, Curt Cignetti, departed in the offseason for greener pastures in Indiana (I can’t believe I’m saying that), taking a slew of players with him, including three running backs. 

However, James Madison shouldn’t have to worry about its offensive production, as it brings in new offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy from Holy Cross, where the Crusaders averaged 466 yards per game on offense in 2023. Coupled with Charlotte’s pedestrian defense last season – letting up 374.2 yards per contest – a touchdown margin should be no problem for the Dukes as they continue their success as a newfound FBS program. 

Oh, and based on what Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi said at his press conference Tuesday, the 49ers will be without 8-9 of their starters. So by game day, this line might go up, but I’m comfortable with playing this up to 10.5.