Purdue -4.5

This will be a strength-on-strength matchup when Purdue’s offense is on the field.

The Boilermakers put the ball in the air the eighth-most of all FBS teams, and they’re efficient when they do so. Purdue ranks 26th nationally in Passing Success Rate behind the arm of quarterback Aidan O’Connell. 

Although O’Connell has taken a step back from where he was last year, he has a bevy of weapons around him — most notably, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, who ranks sixth nationally with 840 yards receiving and nine touchdowns.

Unlike Purdue teams of the past, the Boilermakers rank 24th in Rushing Success Rate this season, putting themselves in the top 30 in terms of both Rushing and Passing Success Rate.

But where the Boilers can gather a margin is on the defensive side of the ball. This isn’t like the Northwestern defense that ranked outside the top 80 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Passing Success Rate. 

In fact, Purdue sits 17th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, and its defensive line will have no problem attacking an Iowa O-line that has struggled to get a push up front all season and ranks 125th in Offensive Line Yards.

Action Network’s Collin Wilson makes the Boilermakers a 6-point favorite, while BJ Cunningham has Purdue projected at -6.5. Add in the fact that Jeff Brohm’s team has always been a thorn in Iowa’s side, and I’d lay the points with the Boilers.

Over 42

Week 10 marks the first time this season that I haven’t taken the under in Iowa’s game.

Purdue is averaging 32.8 points per game this season, and every Boilermakers game this season has seen at least 54 points light up the scoreboard except for one — a 20-10 Purdue victory over Minnesota.

The difference between Minnesota and Iowa is that the Golden Gophers run the ball on 65.6% of plays, which is the eighth-highest rush rate in the country.

While a Kirk Ferentz-coached team will almost always want to establish the ground game, the Hawkeyes run the ball much less than Minnesota. The Hawkeyes turn to their ground attack on 54.5% of plays, which is barely in the top half of the country.

Iowa hasn’t faced a team that throws it nearly as often as Purdue. I expect the Boilermakers to put up some points in this one, which will force Iowa to throw the ball to keep up.

Lock of the week: New Mexico +17 vs. Utah State

This game might not be fun to watch, but this is too many points. 

Utah State has put up only 19.1 points per game this season, and the Aggies are still facing quarterback problems. 

Starter Logan Bonner suffered a season-ending injury at the end of September. That led to three quarterbacks seeing action against the Rams, and the group went a combined 14-of-30 for 138 yards. That adds up to a horrific 4.6 yards per attempt.

Freshman Bishop Davenport got the start in the next game against Wyoming and threw for only 104 yards and an interception on 17-of-26 passing.

If the Aggies can’t throw the ball against a New Mexico secondary that ranks 27th nationally in coverage grade, they’ll have to turn to the ground game. That would be fine if Utah State didn’t rank 97th in Rushing Success Rate.

The Lobos offense isn’t good, but their defense should find a way to keep a depleted Aggies offense in check. 

I snagged this at New Mexico +17 (-120) but would feel good playing it to +14.5.