It pains me to say this, but I don’t think Iowa football’s offense is going to be any better in 2022 than it was in 2021.

I get no joy out of watching 11 or more players struggle to move the ball and score points possession after possession. Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’s disappointment doesn’t put a smile on my face.

I hate to write off an entire unit before the Hawkeyes have even played their first game, but I don’t see many reasons to be optimistic.

I’ve watched a lot of football games, and I believe one fact holds true at every level: personnel always supersedes game plan and scheme. Bottom line, Iowa’s offensive output will be about the same this year as it was last season — no matter how many tweaks the Hawkeyes make.

Iowa is returning three of its top five wide receivers, its No. 1 quarterback, and its top two tight ends. The Hawkeyes also lost their top running back, Tyler Goodson, the best offensive lineman in the country, center Tyler Linderbaum, and starting guard Kyler Schott.

With the group I just mentioned, Iowa ranked 121st in the nation in total offense. For those keeping score at home, there are only 130 teams in the FBS. The Hawkeyes’ passing attack was 109th in the country.

On top of that, the Hawkeyes were second-to-last in the Big Ten Conference in sacks allowed. Iowa was also 11th in the league in yards per run and rushing yards per game.

Given the number of returning players the Hawkeyes have, I’d say we got a large enough sample last year to accurately predict what Iowa will do on offense this season.

With no major personnel upgrades or coaching staff changes, there’s no way for me to claim the Hawkeyes’ offense will make major strides in 2022.

Prove me wrong, Hawkeyes. I’ll tip my cap if you do.