Over the past two seasons, Iowa football has competed in ten games decided by eight points or less. In those games, the Hawkeyes went 5-5.

This season, Iowa has seven games on its schedule that are likely to be decided by eight points or less. Those games pit the Hawkeyes against Indiana, Iowa State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska.

Using recent history as a barometer, the Hawkeyes should only win 50 percent of the seven games they’ll play in that will be decided by eight points or less in 2021-22.

Obviously, Iowa can’t win exactly 3.5 of its games that are decided by eight points or less. So, I’ll pretend the Hawkeyes are going to win three games by a single possession this season.

I’ll chalk the other five games on Iowa’s schedule up as Hawkeye wins.

If Iowa wins those five games and picks up three victories in its other seven games — most of which will likely be decided by eight points or less — the Hawkeyes’ win-loss total should be 8-4 at the end of the 2021-22 season.

The Hawkeyes’ losses will probably come to the four teams on their schedule that are currently ranked in the Associated Press’ preseason top 25: No. 17 Indiana, No. 7 Iowa State, No. 19 Penn State, and No. 12 Wisconsin.

Wins over Northwestern, Purdue, and Nebraska aren’t guaranteed either. The Hawkeyes lost to both Northwestern and Purdue last season. And in its last three games against Nebraska, Iowa has won by just a single possession.

While some may see Iowa going 10-2 this season, I think a more realistic projection for the Hawkeyes in 2021-22 is 8-4.