Point-counterpoint: Debating the over/unders of Iowa football
Pregame editor Pete Ruden and assistant sports editor Robert Read debate some of Iowa’s biggest statistical questions heading into the season.
August 28, 2019
Wins – 8.5
Over
Sure, Iowa has a tough schedule this season, but the Big Ten West is wide open. That means six of its games are against teams it certainly has a chance to beat. Add two nonconference wins and one or two crossover victories, and there’s nine-plus.
Traveling to Michigan isn’t an easy crossover game, but Iowa should make quick work of Rutgers and Penn State at home in what could end up being a night game.
Iowa has talent on both sides of the ball, and there’s no certainty another team in the West can keep the Hawkeyes from reaching nine wins.
-Pete Ruden
Under
Iowa football faces a very tough road schedule this season. Very tough.
They will travel to Ames to play what is now a very good Iowa State team. Trips to the Big House to play Michigan and Evanston to face off against the reigning Big Ten West Champion Northwestern Wildcats are also on the slate of road opponents.
Oh, and they also travel to Wisconsin and Nebraska.
The point being that while Iowa has a lot of talent this year, and should see success out on the gridiron, that road schedule is too tough to predict over 8.5 wins. Realistically, I would expect to Iowa to end the regular season similarly to how they did last year with an 8-4 record.
-Robert Read
Nate Stanley passing touchdowns – 25.5
Over
Stanley has 26 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, so that number should stay the same if it doesn’t get higher.
Stanley will also be working with what is likely the most talented group of receivers he’s had while at Iowa.
Juniors Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are listed as the top two receivers on the Iowa depth chart and should be reliable targets for Stanley in the passing game.
Add in other players from the position group – Nico Ragaini and the recently-cleared Oliver Martin among them – and Stanley should have plenty of weapons this season.
-Robert Read
Under
Stanley’s consistency has been awfully impressive the past two seasons, but it’s not easy reaching 26 scores a season — just one behind Iowa’s single-season record.
It’s exceedingly difficult, considering Iowa’s offense. The Hawkeyes aren’t going to stray from their strategy of pounding the ball on the ground, even if it isn’t successful.
He’s only 22 touchdowns away from tying Chuck Long’s career record, and I think he gets there. But that doesn’t mean he reaches 26.
-Pete Ruden
A.J. Epenesa sacks – 11.5
Under
I fully expect for A.J. Epenesa to have the dominant season that everyone else thinks he will have. He will be a force to be reckoned with.
But because the conference’s reigning sack leader will be such an area of concern for opposing offensive coordinators, his sack total may be lower than what might be expected.
Two or three blockers will be on Epenesa every play, and while he will undoubtedly still get his share of hits on the opposing quarterback, all that attention will make it tough.
It will, however, free up other dangerous pass rushers on the defensive line like Chauncey Golston, so Iowa should have no problem getting to the quarterback this season.
-Robert Read
Over
A.J. Epenesa racked up 11 sacks last season when he wasn’t even a starter. Logic says he’s going to exceed that, and he will.
Teams are likely going to focus on making sure Epenesa doesn’t beat them, but Iowa simply has too many good players on its defensive line.
Epenesa is going to get free at some point. Teams knew about what he could do last season, and he still led the conference in sacks. Now, he’s getting more snaps. Book a season with more than 11 sacks.
-Pete Ruden