Pete Ruden’s (11-18-1, $1,010) Picks:

Maryland +6.5

I wouldn’t be surprised if Maryland won this game outright.

The Terrapins’ main weakness on defense is the one area Iowa can’t exploit: the secondary.

When it comes to defending the ground game, Maryland sits at 48th in Rushing Success Rate allowed — higher than Iowa’s mark of 54th offensively despite the fact that the nation’s third-leading rusher leads the charge in the backfield. It also doesn’t give up a ton of explosive plays, as it ranks 48th in Rushing expected points added (EPA) allowed.

Plus, the Terps rank 19th nationally in Defensive Line Yards, so don’t expect the Hawkeyes’ offensive line to push their opponent around like they’ve done at times throughout the season. 

Offensively, Maryland has found some life in the post-Taulia Tagovailoa era. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has been solid for the Terrapins all season, coming in with a 15:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio while putting up 285.5 yards per game. 

As a team, Maryland actually leads the conference with 305.7 passing yards per game. Yes, more than the explosive offenses at Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and USC.

While its ground attack is certainly nothing to write home about, the Terps should find ways to move the ball against an Iowa defense that’s not the same as past units in the Phil Parker era.

Plus, Iowa just hasn’t played well on the road this season. It’s 1-3 in road games this season after falling flat on its face against Michigan State and UCLA. The Hawkeyes were favorites of around a touchdown in those games and lost outright. Sound familiar?

I’d wait to see if a +7 pops again in the market, but I’d be comfortable backing Maryland down to +6.

Under 46.5

I’d lean toward the under here.

Iowa’s defense can’t successfully attack Maryland’s secondary, while the Terps’ ground game — which ranks 109th in Success Rate and 70th in EPA — shouldn’t find much of anything against the Hawkeyes.

That renders both offenses one-dimensional. 

I foresee a low-scoring slugfest that makes the near-touchdown ‘dog live to win the game outright. 

Lock of the Week: Kansas +3 vs. No. 16 Colorado

I have backed Kansas in each of the past two weeks — wins over Iowa State and previously undefeated BYU — and I’m not done yet. 

This Jayhawks offense has figured things out in the post-Andy Kotelnicki era. Prior to its victory over the Cougars in Provo, Kansas had scored at least 27 points in six straight games, including a 45-point outburst against an Iowa State team that looked like it was headed for the Big 12 title game.

Now, the KU offense ranks 11th in Rushing Success Rate, 21st in Passing Success Rate and fourth in Finishing Drives. The Jayhawks are moving the ball down the field methodically and ending drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. 

Quarterback Jalon Daniels has looked tremendous in KU’s last five games, throwing for 1,180 yards, eight touchdowns, and two picks while rushing for another 221 yards and four scores. 

Running back Devin Neal has also been a touchdown machine, finding paydirt seven times in his past four games.

On the other side of the ball, teams want to attack this Kansas defense by imposing their will and pushing a relatively weak Jayhawks defensive line around. Well, Colorado can’t do that. The Buffaloes rank 77th in Rushing Success Rate and 115th in Offensive Line Yards. 

The pressure will be on the arm of Shedeur Sanders and the hands of Travis Hunter. 

That’s not typically a bad thing, but it’s not ideal when the offense can’t get out of its own way — it ranks 105th in Offensive Momentum Killer Rate, which measures penalties and mistakes that kill drives — and the defense has its hands full with one of the best run games in the country.

Before the Iowa State game, Kansas was one of the most underrated teams in the country after losing five games by five points or less and another by six. 

The Jayhawks have shown just how underrated they were over the past two weeks, and I expect more of the same at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday.

Matt McGowan’s (16-14, $1,454) Picks:

Maryland +6.5

Given Iowa’s lingering uncertainty at the quarterback position, I don’t anticipate this one as a rout like it’s been in recent memory. Without Brendan Sullivan at quarterback, Iowa’s offense won’t have the same dynamism that led to its 40-point outbursts against Wisconsin and Northwestern. 

Maryland will know full well the Hawkeyes will keep the ball on the ground, and the Terrapins have conceded only 115 rushing yards per game to their opponents this season. 

If Iowa struggles to get the run game going, it will have a tough time pulling away from a Maryland offense that ranks top-10 in the Big Ten in points per game. Terrapin quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. is second in the Big Ten in passing yards and can score with his legs in the red zone with five rushing touchdowns on the season. 

Ultimately, Maryland is 1-6 in conference play for a reason, and while it won’t come out on top on Saturday, it can at least cover a touchdown spread. 

Under 46.5

Once again, a Sullivan-less offense doesn’t produce points, especially against a Maryland defense that’s been solid against the run. Maryland’s offense isn’t a slouch, but it hasn’t scored more than 25 points since an Oct. 19 contest against USC. With a bye week to stew over the loss to UCLA, Iowa’s defense should be hungry to prove they won’t again be hampered by tackling woes. For instance, following the disaster against Michigan State, coordinator Phil Parker’s unit forced two turnovers and yielded only 16 points to a Washington squad whose pass-first scheme mirrors that of Maryland. 

In the end, this total is just too high for an Iowa football game. Back to last year’s old reliable. 

Lock of the Week: No. 9 Ole Miss -9 vs. Florida 

As Pete mentioned a few weeks ago, Ole Miss loves to wreak havoc in the backfield. The Rebels rank atop the FBS with 46 sacks and 296 sack yards. While Florida fairs well against the pass rush, allowing only 13 sacks on the season, the Gators will most likely be hungover from an upset against LSU last week. 

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is coming off a bye and has the edge at the quarterback position. Jackson Dart leads the FBS with a 188.58 pass efficiency and has only four interceptions on the season. Florida isn’t stellar against the pass, conceding 236 yards per game this season. 

While the Gators have the home-field advantage in this one, the Rebels won’t back down with a potential playoff spot on the line.