Pete Ruden’s (10-16-1, $915) Picks:
Iowa -5.5
This was the first bet I made this week.
The main handicap comes down to one thing: Kaleb Johnson should absolutely eat.
The nation’s second-leading rusher has run for at least 100 yards in seven of his nine games — and he ran for 98 yards in one of the games he didn’t top the century mark.
Well, UCLA ranks 111th in both Rushing Success Rate allowed and Rushing EPA allowed. Iowa sits top-25 in Rush EPA offensively, so expect Johnson to break off a lot of big runs.
The opposite holds true on the other side of the ball. UCLA ranks 134th — dead last in FBS — in Rushing Success Rate and 133rd in Offensive Line Yards.
That’s big because UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers hasn’t set the world on fire by any means this season. He has 10 touchdowns to nine interceptions, which is bad news against an Iowa defense that ranks fifth nationally.
Plus, I played Iowa vs. UCLA in EA Sports College Football 25 earlier this week, and the Hawkeyes covered with ease. What more could you ask for?
Ultimately, Iowa has too many big advantages here. I’d bet the Hawkeyes at -6.5 or better.
Over 44.5
As long as Brendan Sullivan remains Iowa’s starter, I’m going to lean toward this over.
He adds a whole new dimension to the Hawkeyes offense with the quarterback run game. While opponents didn’t necessarily have to account for Cade McNamara, Sullivan is a different story.
The Hawkeyes have also scored 40 points or more on four separate occasions this season, ranking fourth in the Big Ten in scoring offense.
Considering UCLA ranks 124th in Defensive Finishing Drives, I expect a similar outing.
Now, I can’t wax poetic about UCLA’s offense because there’s not much to like there. However, Garbers has thrown for 602 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games, so there’s at least something there.
If Iowa takes care of business, we could only need one score from the Bruins to go over this number.
Lock of the Week: James Madison -16.5 vs. Georgia State
This situational spot is absolutely terrible for the Panthers.
Georgia State has lost five games in a row and now heads to Harrisonburg, Virginia, for its fourth consecutive road contest.
To make matters worse, James Madison holds a lot of key advantages on the field.
The Panthers rank outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Passing Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Defensive Finishing Drives.
On the other side, the Dukes sit top-10 in both Rushing Success Rate allowed and Passing Success Rate allowed.
Plus, JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been electric, racking up 18 touchdowns to two interceptions through the air while also posing a threat with his legs.
Given the statistical and spot advantages, I’m taking the Dukes to win big in this Sun Belt showdown.
Matt McGowan’s (16-11, $1,454) Picks:
Iowa -5.5
While UCLA has been hot as of late, winning two consecutive games with improved quarterback play from Ethan Garbers, the Bruins’ streak of success ends with the Hawkeyes. Despite scoring 62 combined points over its last two contests, UCLA still averages 18 points per game – a field goal away from where Iowa was last year.
Garbers’ knack for turnovers will prove costly. Despite its stout run defense, UCLA hasn’t faced a ground like Iowa’s, which ranks top-10 in the FBS in rushing yards per game – not to mention having three quality backs and a mobile quarterback in Brendan Sullivan.
Over 44.5
Let the pattern continue. The Bruins are allowing 27.9 points per game to their opponents, ranking second-to-last in the Big Ten. Piling up more than 400 yards of offense in each of their last two games, the Hawkeyes’ success should continue despite the extra travel.
Not to mention the Bruins rank dead last in the FBS in opponent third down conversion percentage. So even if Iowa does stall early and find itself on third down, it should be more than capable of hitting the sticks. I don’t see UCLA putting up more than a touchdown, but considering Iowa is averaging more than 30 points per game, I have confidence this one hits the total. Until the number exceeds 45, I’ll favor the over.
Lock of the Week: Minnesota -6 vs. Rutgers
After my previous mishap in having confidence in Rutgers’ homefield advantage, I’m flipping the script this week. These two teams are going in opposite directions – Minnesota the winners of four straight and Rutgers the losers of four consecutive contests.
The Gophers boast the ninth-best defense in the FBS, allowing 290.6 yards per game. Defense always travels, so whatever muster the Scarlet Knights have on offense –averaging 387.9 yards per game – it will fizzle out quickly. Plus, with a Big Ten-leading 15 interceptions as well as seven forced fumbles, the Gophers could flip the field early and often.