Pete Ruden’s (8-15-1, $729) Picks:
Iowa -3
This game will begin and end on the legs of Kaleb Johnson.
Wisconsin ranks just 105th in Defensive Line Yards, and if the Badgers aren’t getting to Johnson at the line, he should have a field day when he reaches the second level.
Plus, the addition of Brendan Sullivan at quarterback gives the Hawkeyes another dimension on offense. Given the fact that Wisconsin ranks outside the top 100 in Havoc, I don’t expect the Badgers to live in the backfield, which should help Iowa gain positive yards and move the chains.
It’s also worth noting that Sullivan hasn’t thrown an interception. While he has only thrown 16 passes on the season, the Badgers haven’t been an opportunistic defense, ranking 10th in the Big Ten in passes defensed.
I also don’t have much faith in Wisconsin quarterback Braedyn Locke, who has been starting since Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke went down with an injury. He has thrown only seven touchdowns to six interceptions on the season and has tossed at least one pick in each of his last five starts.
Iowa also has a massive special teams advantage, ranking fifth in Special Teams SP+ compared to Wisconsin’s rank of 75th.
Give me the Hawkeyes here, but I’m going to need -3 or better.
Under 41
Iowa runs the ball on 61 percent of its plays — a top-15 rush rate — which will keep the clock moving throughout.
Wisconsin scored 52 against Purdue and 42 against Rutgers, but the Badgers have fallen off in the past two weeks, putting up 23 against Northwestern and 13 against Penn State.
While Iowa’s defense hasn’t been the same as it was in previous years, it’s still a massive step up from a team like Purdue.
The Hawkeyes still rank sixth in Pro Football Focus’ Coverage grade and 16th in PFF Tackling grade, so Wisconsin won’t get anything easy.
Lock of the Week: No. 19 Ole Miss -7 vs. Arkansas
Ole Miss has a massive Havoc advantage on Saturday.
The Rebels lead the nation in Havoc, while the Razorbacks rank just 91st in Havoc Allowed. Ole Miss should live in the backfield here as its patented Landshark defense makes things very difficult on Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green.
The Rebels also rank top-10 in Passing Success Rate allowed, Rushing Success Rate allowed, and Defensive Line Yards, so the Hogs should struggle to put drives together all game.
Offensively, Ole Miss should receive a boost from the return of Tre Harris, who missed last week’s game against Oklahoma with an injury.
He has 28 more receptions and 499 yards more than the next closest player, so he’ll be a welcome sight for Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart.
I’ll take the Rebs at -7 or better. Hotty Toddy!
Matt McGowan’s (14-10, $1,264) Picks:
Iowa -3
I have a feeling this will be Iowa’s closest conference contest of the season so far, but I’m still comfortable with laying a field goal for the Hawkeyes at home. While not a defense to take lightly, as Wisconsin has gained 10 turnovers this season, the Badgers give the ball away even more – seven fumbles lost and six interceptions. With the Hawkeye secondary having a bounce-back game last week against Northwestern, don’t be surprised if Badger quarterback Braedyn Locke winds up throwing to the wrong team.
Plus, Wisconsin isn’t great against the run, allowing just north of 144 rushing yards per game. With Brendan Sullivan under center, the Badgers can’t key in on Kaleb Johnson, giving Iowa an edge on the ground.
Over 41
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Iowa games have exceeded this total all but twice this season, with the pair of outliers being 39 and 40 total points. Despite earlier forecasts, there shouldn’t be rain on Saturday night, making things comfortable for Iowa quarterback Brendan Sullivan in his ninth career start. With both of these squads’ respective rushing abilities, I can see enough points to edge this one over the total.
Lock of the Week: Navy -11.5 vs. Rice
While Navy looked like a sinking ship last week against Notre Dame, the Midshipmen are in a perfect rebound spot against a terrible Rice team. The Owls rank 121st in the FBS with a minus-8 turnover margin and 87th in rush defense. These are the perfect conditions for a Navy squad built on running the football – although it can pass now – and most likely weary from an uncharacteristic showing against the Irish, where it lost a whopping five fumbles.
While dreams of an undefeated season are shattered, this is the American military. One loss will not define it. If anything, the Midshipmen will play angry – they have nothing to lose and have no need to be concerned for turning the ball over.