Pete Ruden’s (7-13-1, $638) Picks:
Northwestern +14
I wanted to buy low on Iowa coming into this week, but I just can’t trust its aerial attack with Cade McNamara under center.
The former Michigan signal-caller still hasn’t eclipsed 200 passing yards against an FBS opponent, with his closest effort being a 176-yard outing against a rough Troy defense.
Considering the fact that Northwestern ranks 50th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, there’s going to be a decent amount of pressure on McNamara to move the ball through the air.
I can’t trust a quarterback who’s averaging under six yards per attempt to do that.
On the other side, Northwestern has taken a step forward with Jack Lausch under center. He put up a dud in his first start against Washington but threw for a combined 446 yards in his next two outings.
If the Wildcats can contain Kaleb Johnson even a little bit, I think they can keep it close.
Over 37.5
We need to have a conversation about the Iowa defense. This is not the same Phil Parker unit that has trotted out onto the field in recent years.
Before this season, the Hawkeyes ranked 26th or better in Defensive Success Rate for four straight seasons. This year? The Hawkeyes are down to 75th.
They’ve missed far too many tackles and given up way too many explosive plays — something that has always been under control with Parker leading the way.
Given the step forward the offense has taken under Tim Lester and the step backward the defense has taken, I don’t think Iowa wants to grind out 30-point games anymore.
Now, Northwestern is far from an offensive powerhouse. In fact, it ranks 131st in EPA per Play and 125th in Success Rate. But those numbers might be a bit deflated with Mike Wright starting the first two games of the season.
I trust Lausch under center a lot more than Wright, as the former has at least proven to be competent while taking care of the ball.
Plus, the Hawkeyes still have Johnson, so I would expect him to break a few runs like usual.
I’ll take the over here.
Lock of the Week: LSU +3 vs. Texas A&M
This should be a very entertaining game between two top-15 teams with SEC Championship and College Football Playoff implications.
It might not sound right, but these are actually the only two SEC teams still undefeated in conference play.
With so much on the line, I’ll take the battle-tested Tigers on the road at Kyle Field.
LSU should have massive advantages in the passing game with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leading the way.
The Tigers rank ninth in Passing Success Rate and will be facing a relatively weak A&M secondary — at least for a Mike Elko defense. The Aggies come into this game at 47th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 80th in PFF Coverage grade.
On the other side, the Tigers’ defensive weakness also lies in the secondary. Well, I don’t expect Conner Weigman and Co. to take advantage. The Aggies rank just 70th in Passing Success Rate, and Weigman has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns on the year.
They would be much better off sticking to the ground game, but that’s where LSU’s defense measures up. The Tigers rank 28th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 38th in Defensive Line Yards.
LSU has the biggest advantage in the passing game, so give me the better quarterback and the Bayou Bengals to cover the number in College Station.
Matt McGowan’s (12-9, $1,802) Picks:
Northwestern +14
The Hawkeyes and Wildcats have played close games in recent history, with six of the last eight matchups decided by a touchdown or less. The Wildcats will make things difficult for quarterback Cade McNamara, ranking first in the Big Ten in pass defenses.
Similar to the game against Michigan State, I can see running back Kaleb Johnson breaking free for a couple of big gains, but the Wildcats can stop the bleeding with a red zone defense that allows just a 72.4 conversion rate to its foes – second-best in the Big Ten. Iowa will undoubtedly head into Kinnick with a chip on its shoulder, but that chip isn’t worth two touchdowns.
Over 37.5
While this matchup appears to be another classic Big Ten West matchup destined to total less than 35 points, such won’t happen this time around. Yes, this was a 10-7 affair last year, but not only will the weather be more conducive to scoring – no Wrigley Field wind –, but Iowa’s lowest total this year has been 39.
Northwestern’s defense isn’t a pushover, ranking 17th in the FBS against the run, but considering how Iowa has played coming off of losses this season, the Hawkeyes will be motivated to light up the scoreboard. A couple of Kinnick-caused false starts on Northwestern will give Iowa better opportunities to score.
Lock of the Week: No. 11 Indiana -6.5 vs. Washington
Washington is coming off a bye, so this might be a little risky, I’ll side with a dominant home team that isn’t afraid to run up the score. The Hoosiers’ average margin of victory this season is a whopping 35 points. Against Big Ten opponents, that number is 26.
Washington sits atop the FBS in passing yards allowed per game, but Indiana is no stranger to keeping the ball on the ground, averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game and ranking 23rd in the FBS. Plus, Indiana is dominant in the red zone, scoring on 93.2 percent of its trips. The Hoosiers have all the momentum, and I just don’t smell a trap game here, unless, of course, former Husky and Hoosier quarterback Michael Penix Jr. shows up at Memorial Stadium – which won’t happen because the Falcons are in Tampa Bay in this weekend.
Ultimately, the Hoosiers have playoff dreams on the horizon, and head coach Curt Cignetti is more than happy to run up the score in front of a sold-out home crowd, whether those be Huskers or Huskies.