Pete Ruden’s (7-10-1, $638) Picks:
Iowa -5.5
I will admit this is not a great spot for Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a revenge game against Minnesota, a bout against the defending Big Ten champs in Ohio State and an inaugural Big Ten game against the defending national runners-up in Washington.
That’s a lot.
With that said, I don’t have much faith in Michigan State.
The Spartans rank 75th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 127th out of 134 teams in Adjusted EPA per Play.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been an absolute turnover machine since following Jonathan Smith from Oregon State, racking up eight interceptions through six games while throwing only five touchdowns. He has thrown at least two picks in half of MSU’s games.
That’ll be welcome news for an Iowa secondary that leads the nation in PFF coverage grading.
With an extremely limited passing game that ranks 83rd in Success Rate, the Spartans will need to rely on their ground game. Well, they don’t have much going there either.
The offensive line has been abysmal in creating running lanes for running backs Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams, ranking 119th in Offensive Line Yards and 123rd in Havoc Allowed. With no push up front, the Hawkeyes’ defensive front will live in the backfield.
Defensively, things aren’t much better.
Sparty enters the game 100th or worse in Passing Success Rate Allowed, PFF coverage grade and PFF pass-rush grade, so the Hawkeyes should have enough juice to at least move the ball down the field.
They do have a solid run defense that ranks 30th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but they haven’t seen Kaleb Johnson yet. The nation’s second-leading rusher has run for at least 150 yards in four of his six games this season and has scored multiple touchdowns in five games.
This is a fade of Michigan State more than anything. Give me the Hawkeyes at anything under a touchdown.
Under 41.5
A lot of the same logic applies here.
Michigan State should struggle mightily to move the ball against an Iowa defense that ranks 11th nationally in Quality Drives Allowed. But if the Hawkeyes happen to allow a big play, they’ll take solace in the fact that Sparty sits 128th in Finishing Drives, which means they struggle to put the ball in the end zone when they enter scoring position.
Iowa, meanwhile, might not take complete advantage of Michigan State’s porous pass defense. The Hawkeyes boast the Big Ten’s second-worst passing offense, throwing for only 134.7 yards per game — ahead of only Alex Orji and Michigan.
While they should find some success on the ground, that will keep the clock moving throughout. Iowa runs the ball on 63% of plays, so the clock should be ticking early and often.
Plus, both of these teams play at a snail’s pace. Iowa and Michigan State sit outside the top 110 in seconds per play and won’t be in a hurry to move the ball.
While the Hawkeyes have been smashing overs of late, I’m going to trust the slow pace of this game.
Lock of the Week: Arkansas +3 vs. LSU
Simply put, this is a terrible spot for LSU.
The Tigers will head to Fayetteville after an emotional overtime win over a top-10 Ole Miss team. Now, the Bayou Bengals come into this game ranked No. 8 in the AP Poll despite two of their wins coming by a field goal.
While I happily backed LSU last week, this may be the peak of its market value.
On the other side, Arkansas is coming off a bye after an impressive win over then-No. 4 Tennessee on Oct. 5. The bye week gave the Razorbacks time to properly celebrate the victory without falling into a hangover spot. After a week off, they should be prepared with solid game plans on both sides of the ball thanks to offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and defensive coordinator Travis Williams.
While Arkansas is 4-2, both of the losses came by one possession against teams that were ranked in the Top 25 at the time: No. 16 Oklahoma State and No. 24 Texas A&M.
If a couple of things had swung the Hogs’ way and away from LSU, these teams would be viewed completely differently in the market.
Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman has also been printing money in these spots. According to Action Network’s Stuckey, he has gone 22-8 against the spread (73.3%) as an underdog, including 15-4 ATS (78.9%) against top-20 opponents. For what it’s worth, he has also gone 5-1 ATS (83.3%) off a bye week.
Matt McGowan’s (11-7, $987) Picks:
Iowa -5.5
While taking a road favorite is always risky, I’m confident the Hawkeyes can continue their success in East Lansing by taking advantage of turnovers. The Spartans have 14 of them on the season, and given the punting prowess of Hawkeye Rhys Dakin, quarterback Aidan Chiles and Co. will be operating near its own end zone. This is a perfect storm of Iowa’s first defensive touchdown of the season, or at the very least, scenarios where Iowa can at least score field goals. And if it’s any consolation, all of Iowa’s victories this season have been by at least a touchdown, whereas three of Michigan State’s four conference losses have been by multiple scores. Yes, those were against Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon – Iowa is closer to these teams than Maryland, which topped the Spartans by three.
Over 41.5
It still feels weird to be picking the over for Iowa, but for these 2024 Hawkeyes, scoring, not punting, is winning. Iowa has surpassed this total in all but two of its games – same for Michigan State. The Spartans haven’t been great against the run, allowing 130.8 yards per game on the ground this season. I see no reason why they can stop Kaleb Johnson – who has accounted for more than half of Iowa’s touchdowns this season. As I mentioned above, this should be the game for the Hawkeyes’ first defensive score of the season. When both sides of the football are putting up points, this total should be no problem. Until the weather gets colder, I see no reason not to take an Iowa over when the total hovers around 40.
Lock of the Week: Rutgers -4.5 vs. UCLA
In a newly expanded Big 10, the former PAC-12 teams have languished in road conference games. While Oregon has not played a Big Ten team on the road yet, Washington, UCLA, and USC have yet to win in this scenario, falling by an average of 10.6 points per game.
So when I see putrid 1-5 UCLA making the five-hour flight to New Jersey for a matchup against 4-2 Rutgers, I have to back the Scarlet Knights. Aside from jet lag, the Bruins will be dealing with a Scarlet Knight squad that averages nearly 200 rushing yards per game. While UCLA has been great against the run this season – which is perhaps why the spread is so low – I believe this game will be decided on third down. Rutgers has allowed conversion on less than 40 percent of its opponents’ attempts, which will serve well against a UCLA offense that only converts 33.8 percent of the time.
This is a strength-on-strength matchup, but with the home field – and time zone – advantage, Rutgers can win – and cover – to keep its once-promising season alive.