Pete Ruden’s (1-5, $89) Picks:
Iowa -22
Iowa wants to bounce back after letting the Cy-Hawk Game completely get away, and Troy is the perfect opponent for that situation.
To put it simply, this is not the same Jon Sumrall-coached team that had consistently fielded one of the Group of Five’s top defenses over the past few years.
The Trojans’ defense ranks 100th or worse in Rushing Success Rate, Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Havoc, pass rush, and explosiveness.
That’s perfect for an offense looking to set the record straight after dominating Iowa State in the first half and crumbling in the second.
Troy won’t be ready for Kaleb Johnson, who has racked up 306 yards and four touchdowns in only three halves of football this season.
On the other side, I don’t expect West Virginia transfer Goose Crowder to light Iowa up. For what it’s worth the Hawkeyes allowed Iowa State to gain only 38% of available yards and post an Offensive Success Rate in the 40th percentile.
The situational spot and stats all favor Iowa here. Plus, Action Network’s betting power ratings make the Hawkeyes a -24.5 favorite at home, so there’s a little bit of value at this number.
Over 39
For the first time in over a year, I’m not taking an Iowa under. That’s how bad Troy’s defense has been.
What was a solid stop unit in 2023 brought back only 37% of its production. That has led to a rank of 127th in defensive rushing success Rate, 110th in defensive passing success rate, 124th in defensive finishing drives and 103rd in explosiveness allowed.
Iowa’s defense might not be 2019 LSU, but it has at least proven to be closer to average, ranking 67th in Passing Success Rate and 84th in Rushing Success Rate.
Offensively, Troy has been around the national average in terms of Success Rate on the ground and through the air. Plus, it doesn’t hurt to have a quarterback like Crowder, who has shown an ability to move the chains with his legs.
What’s most impressive, though, is that the Trojans come into this game eighth in Offensive Finishing Drives. That means when they cross their opponent’s 40-yard line, they’re scoring touchdowns instead of field goals more often than not.
I still don’t think Troy has an offensive explosion here, but given its defensive ineptitude, one score might be all we need.
Lock of the Week: West Virginia -2.5 vs. Pitt
I bet West Virginia on the Game of the Year line at -4.5 over the summer, and I still like it there. So, of course I’m going to run with the Mountaineers at -2.5 in the Backyard Brawl.
The identity of Pat Narduzzi’s teams used to be defense, but Pitt has regressed significantly on the defensive side of the ball in recent seasons.
The Panthers now rank just 95th in scoring defense and 79th in total defense.
That’s bad news against a dominant West Virginia ground game that features a three-headed monster in quarterback Garrett Greene and running backs CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White.
Both backs average over six yards per carry, and Greene’s dual-threat ability adds another element to what has become a dynamic ground game under head coach Neal Brown.
To be completely transparent, I’m a little worried about Pitt running back Desmond Reid taking over the game. He ran for 148 yards and added another 106 through the air against Cincinnati last week.
However, the Mountaineers held the Panthers to 3.6 yards per carry last season and have been solid against the run again in 2024 outside of a few carries by Penn State star Nicholas Singleton.
WVU’s biggest defensive weakness comes in the secondary, but Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein hasn’t shown the ability to exploit that. According to Action Network’s BJ Cunningham, Holstein recorded five turnover-worthy plays against Cincinnati and three against Kent State.
A couple of turnovers here could absolutely swing this game.
Ultimately, I’m not a big believer in this Pitt team, which should’ve lost to the Bearcats after going down 27-6 late in the third quarter. If the Panthers would’ve lost that game, this line wouldn’t sit under a field goal.
I’ll happily take the Mountaineers to win the Backyard Brawl for the second consecutive season.
Matt McGowan’s (3-3, $262) Picks:
Iowa -22
The Hawkeyes are motivated after falling in a heartbreaker to the Cyclones, and unfortunately for Troy, the Trojans will bear the brunt of that anger. The Troy defense allows a 55 percent conversion percentage on third down, and Iowa will take advantage.
If this season turns out to be anything like 2002, when the Hawkeyes ran the table the rest of the regular season after being upset by the Cyclones at home, then this contest should be a massacre. All those years ago, that opponent was Utah State, who was crushed, 48-7. That many points might be a stretch, but 22 should be no problem. This Trojan squad is an inexperienced one with only 12 seniors on the roster, and the veteran Hawkeye defense should have a field day.
Over 39
It feels like I’m betraying an old friend with one, but for once, and hopefully, only once, I’m taking the over in an Iowa football game, especially if it’s under 40.
The Trojan defense is not what it was last year. This unit has given up 33 points per game and can’t stop the run, yielding an average of 212 rushing yards per contest. Hawkeye running back Kaleb Johnson will have 100 yards and a touchdown by halftime. I have a feeling this matchup will look a lot like last year’s 41-10 drubbing of Western Michigan, so if that’s any indication, backup running back Kamari Moulton should put up numbers as well.
Lock of the week: No. 6 Missouri -16.5 vs. No. 24 Boston College
I’m a little excited to bet on Mizzou this week, as the last time I bet against the Tigers, it cost me big time. Then No. 15 Kansas State fell in dramatic fashion, watching in vain as Mizzou kicker Harrison Melvis nailed a walk-off field goal from an SEC-record 61 yards out.
Unfortunately, Melvis opted to head to the NFL and was cut from the Carolina Panthers in August. Thankfully though, this contest shouldn’t be decided by a field goal, as Mizzou should win-handedly against an overrated Boston College squad.
Yes, the Eagles defeated Florida State in Week 1, but that shouldn’t really count as a ranked win, as the Seminoles are a far cry from their undefeated days of 2023. Granted, Mizzou hasn’t exactly played top competition either, crushing Buffalo and Murray State by a combined score of 89-0, the only FBS school that hasn’t let up a point over two games.
Boston College does have a potent run game, averaging 282.5 yards per game and over five yards per rush. Plus, I’m a big fan of its bespectacled quarterback Thomas Castellanos. However, Mizzou has the defense needed to take the Eagles out of flight, allowing only 85 rushing yards per game. Even last season, the Tigers yielded 122 yards per game. Ultimately, Mizzou has the track record from 2023 and two games into this season to make this one a laugher.