The 2024 election has revealed uncertainty among Democrats regarding their Presidential candidate, the election, and the future of their party. With Democratic voting trends and a higher number of Democratic voters than neighboring cities, Iowa City finds itself in the midst of this uncertainty.

On July 21, President Joe Biden announced in a letter addressed to the nation he would be exiting the 2024 presidential election.

This letter was posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, following several weeks of high-profile Democrats calling for Biden to step out of the race. In addition to pressure from national leaders such as Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, Iowan politicians Christina Bohannon and Sarah Corkery also called for Biden to exit the race.

University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle said Biden’s decision to exit the race was likely a combination of mounting pressures from top Democrats, campaign money beginning to wane, and an attempt to preserve his reputation and legacy as a president.

The main cause of Biden’s decision to step down, according to Hagle, was most likely the conversation developing around his cognitive abilities. While Biden’s cognitive abilities were already being criticized by Republicans, it was only after Biden’s poor performance at the Biden-Trump debate and his behavior at the George Clooney fundraiser held in California that this discussion entered the Democratic party.

“At that point, the leaks were starting to occur. The dam, so to speak, was broken, and it was hard to deny that Biden was having some problems,” Hagle said.

At first, Biden resisted these criticisms and on all fronts indicated that he would not be stepping down from the race. Hagle said what likely changed his mind was not just pressure from top Democrats but also an understanding the upcoming election has strong implications for the Democratic Party.

Hagle drew comparisons between Biden’s decision to step down and the 1968 election, when then-President Lyndon B. Johnson exited his race for reelection after caucus results indicated his chances of winning the election were slim. While polls did not indicate this same risk for Biden, acknowledged Hagle, there were still strong concerns for how a Biden re-election would impact the midterms, with the Democrats only having loose hold on the Senate.

Looking forward, Hagle said the likely Democratic candidate will be Kamala Harris.

Beginning her campaign with $90 million and millions more being fundraised immediately following her campaign announcement, Hagle said Harris is beginning her campaign with a large treasure chest.

While Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom have also been mentioned in the race for president, Hagle believes it’s unlikely any Democrat will run against Harris. As an African and Indian-American female candidate, Harris is a difficult nominee to challenge.

As far as vice president goes, Hagle said Gov. Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania has indicated he may be open to the position. Whitmer from Michigan poses a risk as an all-female ticket has never been tested before, and Governor Newsom from California may not want to run as Harris’s vice in case this position harms his chance at running for president in the future.

As for Harris’s foreign policy, Brian Lai, the department chair of the UI Political Science Department, said Harris’s approach is unlikely to differ too greatly from President Biden’s foreign policy.

Lai said the conflicts that most directly impact the U.S. are the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in Gaza. For these conflicts, Lai said Harris would likely continue Biden’s policies, while Trump would likely maintain the status quo for Israel’s support while reducing support for Ukraine.

Climate politics will also divide the two candidates, as Trump will presumably have the U.S. leave the Paris Agreement as he did during his first term.

Lai believes the foreign policy that is most likely to be discussed during Harris’s campaign will be the U.S.-Mexico border, a policy issue that Harris was tasked with during her vice presidency.

“It’s a core issue that they [Republicans] started to attack Biden on even after his policy, and I think that given it was something that she [Harris] was tasked with at the beginning and it didn’t go very well, I think that’s something they’re going to lean into.” said Lai

As for the young vote, Seth Dickinson of the University Democrats at Iowa believes with Harris as the presumptive nominee, enthusiasm is growing among young voters.

Dickinson said the goal of University Democrats at Iowa is to educate UI students, get people to vote, and bring Democratic speakers to campus. He said having Harris as the presumptive nominee makes achieving these goals easier.

Dickinson said for young voters, just having a younger candidate is exciting. Additionally, he believes Harris is more engaging and her presumptive nomination is encouraging more young voters to become informed. He also said her emphasis on issues — such as reproductive rights — is important for young voters, especially for young voters in Iowa, where reproductive rights are restricted.

Dickinson believes the attention Harris has garnered on social media, and the extent to which her campaign has embraced this attention, helps her campaign.

“I think it’s absolutely important that they [Harris Campaign] use it, and I think it could be really helpful to get Gen. Z turnout up,” said Dickinson.

While Harris’s policies, youth, and online presence are encouraging voters to vote Democrat, Dickinson said this shouldn’t be their only motivation. He believes a Trump presidency could be devastating, citing Project 2025 as the greatest risk.

Dickinson described Project 2025 as a Christian nationalist agenda and emphasizes the risk that valuing one religion or race over others poses for democracy. Beyond this risk, Dickinson also wants voters to remember the Trump administration’s failures during his first term.

“They had a Republican trifecta with Congress for two years, and the only big thing they passed was tax cuts for the rich.” said Dickinson.

As for a potential vice president, Dickinson said Harris should prioritize a reliable, qualified, and electable VP but shouldn’t be too threatened by Trump’s pick of JD Vance.

“It won’t be very hard to top JD Vance,” said Dickinson. “He’s not really qualified to even be a U.S. Senator. He just kind of rode in on the wave of Trump-ism.”

Going forward, Dickinson said the University Democrats at Iowa will be having an election-heavy semester. They will be hosting a first meeting social and may shift to having bi-weekly meetings. They will be focusing on meeting candidates of various levels and encouraging students to vote.