Before Sunday night’s disheartening loss at Northwestern, I would have argued that the Hawkeyes had a chance to claim a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament if they win out to close the regular season and put together a solid Big Ten tournament run.

But, I don’t think that’s the case anymore. I believe Iowa will be a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament this postseason. The Hawkeyes are too unreliable and unproven to deserve a higher seed at this point in the season.

The Hawkeyes’ Dec. 21, 2022 loss to an atrocious Eastern Illinois squad at home is a prime example of what could keep this Iowa team from making major noise on Selection Sunday. Iowa shot 7-for-33 from behind the arc against the Panthers, and despite a 24-point, eight-rebound performance from big man Filip Rebraca, Eastern Illinois ran away with a 92-83 victory.

Iowa is unable to handle stretches of subpar shooting from distance, as evidenced by their struggles during Payton Sandfort’s cold streak early in the season. The Hawkeyes live and die by the three far too often — a trend that has given them fits in recent tournament games, especially against Oregon in 2021 and Richmond in 2022.

Iowa shot a combined 14-of-54 from three in those two upset losses, a statistic that might give the NCAA selection committee pause as they consider the Hawkeyes for a higher seed.

Adding to that issue is the Hawkeyes’ struggles in opposing arenas. Check their road record this season — they’re 3-6 outside of Carver, with losses to Penn State and Nebraska. I expect these factors to heavily influence the committee’s decision to award Iowa a No. 7 seed.

This opinion could change if the Hawkeyes manage to win out and make a splash in the Big Ten Tournament. However, there are not many signs that this is a possibility.