Wisconsin -1.5

I’ve struggled to read where Iowa’s at since the beginning of October. It’s played some great defenses like Illinois and some bad defenses like Northwestern. It’s also played great offenses like Ohio State and bad offenses like, well, Northwestern. 

With Braelon Allen in the backfield, Wisconsin should at least find ways to move the ball at times against this Iowa defense — especially on the ground, where the Hawkeyes rank 53rd in Rushing Success Rate compared to seventh against the pass.

Allen has been on a roll of late, rushing four at least 100 yards in each of his last four games.

If Graham Mertz provides even a small boost, the Badgers should find the end zone a few times, as they rank seventh nationally in Offensive Finishing Drives.

Under 35.5

These offenses have shown they can perform against soft defenses. But when they face a solid stop unit, they fall relatively flat. 

For example, when Wisconsin faced an Illinois defense that ranks top-five nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Defensive Passing Success Rate, it ran for a grand total of two yards and threw for just 206.

When it faced a weak Northwestern defense that Iowa scored 33 points against, it ran for 193 yards and gained another 322 through the air.

Iowa’s defense is much closer to Illinois’ than Northwestern’s. With a secondary that ranks seventh in Defensive Passing Success Rate, I don’t think the Hawkeyes will have much of a problem keeping Mertz in check. 

And just like Iowa shut down Ohio State running backs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson — who combined for 57 yards on 21 carries — it can at least contain Wisconsin’s Allen a little bit.

Lock of the Week: Navy +17 vs. Notre Dame

You have to wonder if Notre Dame’s heads are still in the clouds after it rolled Clemson last week and essentially knocked it out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Fighting Irish quarterback Drew Pyne has struggled to find his footing ever since Tyler Buchner got injured in his team’s home loss to Marshall on Sept. 10. 

That means Notre Dame will have to turn to the ground game once again. However, that’s not ideal against a Navy defense that ranks top-20 in Rushing Success Rate, Defensive Line Yards and Havoc.

And according to Action Network’s Stuckey, service academies have covered at a 64.5% clip as underdogs of more than two touchdowns since 2005.

Navy +17 was the first bet I made for Saturday this week, but I wouldn’t feel as comfortable going lower than 17.