Ohio State -29.5

This pick feels dangerous. This is the largest point spread of any game on the college football slate this week. Still, I’m confident No. 2 Ohio State will find a way to beat 3-3 Iowa by 30 points or more.

I’ve already seen many experts pick Iowa to cover because of how large the point spread is. But when everybody seems to heavily suggest a team will cover, that’s right when it doesn’t cover. As the old adage goes, the oddsmakers know more than we do. This line is outrageous for a reason.

Ohio State is ranked second in the nation in total offense, averaging nearly 544 yards and 49 points per game. The Hawkeyes, as has been well-documented this season, are last in the 131-team FBS in the category. Iowa is putting up about 238 yards and one touchdown per game on offense.

Every team Ohio State has played this season has a better offense than Iowa’s. Even Rutgers’ 111th-ranked offense trumps Iowa’s.

None of the teams Ohio State has played this season have scored more than 21 points. The Scarlet Knights only mustered 10 against the Buckeyes. If Iowa’s offense is worse than those of the teams Ohio State has already played, that likely means the Hawkeyes will score fewer than 10 points at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

Iowa is averaging about 15 points per game this season, counting defensive scores. Ohio State’s points per game average is 34 higher than Iowa’s. If the means hold up on Saturday, Ohio State will more than cover the 29.5-point spread.

Under 49.5

This bet kind of contradicts the logic I used to justify Ohio State covering a 29.5-point spread. But I’m confident the Buckeyes can find a way to win by 30 points or more without jeopardizing this under.

Ohio State and Iowa rank fifth and seventh in the country in total defense, respectively. The Hawkeyes haven’t surrendered more than 27 points this season. Though, the highest-rated offense they’ve faced this season is Michigan’s 22nd-ranked unit.

Ohio State might score its average 49 points Saturday. Even in that nightmare scenario for under bettors, this pick could still work. I wouldn’t put scoring no points past Iowa.

The Hawkeyes rank 126th in the country in red zone offense. Iowa has made 12 trips to the red zone and scored eight times. Of the Hawkeyes’ eight red zone scores, four are field goals.

I suspect this game to push the 49.5 total to the brink, unlike a lot of the games Iowa has played this year. Unofficially, I could see Ohio State winning 40-6, covering the 29.5-point spread and allowing this under to hit.

Lock of the Week: Hawaii +5 vs. Colorado State

This game has already been accurately dubbed “the toilet bowl” by some. This really is one of the worst games of the season on paper.

But sometimes, games can feature two bad teams and be entertaining — the 2014 Virginia Tech-Wake Forest game that ended 6-3 comes to mind. I really don’t have any concrete statistical evidence to back up this pick.

But, I like Hawaii to cover. The Rainbow Warriors have a better record (2-5) than the Rams (1-5). So, I’m going to use that as the basis for this bet. Both of these teams have beaten Nevada, but give Hawaii the edge over Colorado State because it has an extra win over Duquesne on its resume.