Men’s basketball in the Big Ten Conference is often unpredictable, especially this year. Ranked teams have already been defeated by unranked teams, and that will likely continue for the entirety of the 2020-21 season.

Not excused from the fierce competition is Iowa men’s basketball. The Hawkeyes have already fallen to both No. 21 Minnesota and Indiana in upset fashion, and more losses certainly lie ahead for the nation’s No. 7 team.

Currently, seven Big Ten teams are ranked inside the AP Top 25 Poll: Iowa, Minnesota, No. 19 Illinois, No. 14 Wisconsin, No. 13 Ohio State, and No. 4 Michigan.

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, as many as ten Big Ten teams might make the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

Before the end of the regular season, the Hawkeyes are scheduled to play nine games against teams Lunardi projects to make the NCAA Tournament.

Even teams Lunardi projects to be lower seeds in the NCAA Tournament could sneak up and deal the Hawkeyes a few losses before the end of the year, as unranked, 10-7 Indiana proved in its 12-point victory over Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena Jan. 21.

With nine tough games remaining on its regular season schedule and Big Ten Tournament play beginning in March, Iowa may suffer three or four more losses before the NCAA Tournament field is announced on March 14.

If Iowa loses four more games before Selection Sunday, it would finish the season with seven total losses. Since 2015, teams with seven losses are typically given two seeds for the NCAA Tournament. However, three seven-loss teams have earned one seeds since 2015.

The teams that have lost seven games and been given one seeds in the past played full schedules of 30 games or more. This season, Iowa is only scheduled to play 27 games because of COVID-19. That number could shrink if games are postponed or canceled entirely.

With a tough remaining schedule, it will also be difficult for Iowa to surpass teams that currently sit ahead of it in the AP Poll and earn a one seed. No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 2 Baylor are both undefeated in 2020-21, and No. 3 Villanova and No. 4 Michigan both boast just one loss on their résumés.

The Hawkeyes have also already lost a head-to-head matchup with Gonzaga, 88-99, at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, on Dec. 19. Iowa does still have a head-to-head matchup with Michigan slated for March 4.

Given the dossiers of the teams ranked ahead of the Hawkeyes and the number of losses they may incur before Selection Sunday, I anticipate they will be given a two seed for this year’s NCAA Tournament.