By Zach Weigel
We are only three weeks into President Trump’s administration, yet already he is reneging on many of his campaign promises. In fact, some of the potential policies proposed by the Trump team could actually end up hurting those who supported Trump the most. Contrary to his campaign rhetoric, there are three specific ways in which his proposals would work to disproportionately marginalize some of his strongest supporters.First, by eliminating the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as ObamaCare, Trump would subject many Republicans to a dubious health-care situation. Statistics show that nearly 55 percent of the 11.5 million new enrollees hail from Republican congressional districts. Therefore, at the aggregate level, Republicans would appear to face a bigger problem than Democrats if the ObamaCare were to be repealed.
Furthermore, aside from benefiting low-income individuals, ObamaCare also significantly benefits both the middle class and the elderly — two groups that voted in favor of Trump. The health act makes subsidies available for premiums for households falling within the middle-class income bracket, meaning that middle-class voters would be affected if ObamaCare were to disappear. The elderly benefit from the act, considering a provision of the law puts limits on how much an insurer can charge customers just because of their age. Thus, repealing ObamaCare could have a palpable effect on many Trump voters.
Second and most proximate to Iowans, by scrapping the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trump restricts export markets for American goods, in turn momentously affecting farmers. Take Iowa’s main exports of corn, soybeans, and livestock, for example. A trade agreement such as the TPP would allow Iowan farmers to get in on the economic benefits globalization has brought so many other sectors by increasing the number of buyers for their exported goods. But by opposing the TPP, Trump stands to impede farmers from reaping the profits of global trade. This seems counterintuitive, given that many of the Midwesternstates such as Iowa voted in Trump’s favor.
Third, in an attempt to recoup America’s trade losses to Mexico, Trump proposes to institute a steep tariff, perhaps as high as 20 percent, on Mexican goods. Yes, this tariff would make it harder for Mexico to export goods to the U.S., possibly erasing our trade deficit; however, most saliently, a tariff on Mexican products would be passed along to American consumers. As the U.S.’s third-largest supplier of imported goods, Americans would see prices skyrocket on vehicles, machinery, and agricultural staples such as fresh fruits and vegetables. So although the U.S. may have a $58 billion trade deficit with Mexico, attempting to level the deficit would lead to large price increases. And these price increases would not only be felt the most by the poor, they would also be inflicted upon rural communities, which happened to vote for Trump in flocks, where there is less retail competition.
For these three reasons Trump’s proposed policies appear to hurt those who voted for him the most. Repealing ObamaCare would put many Republicans at risk, scrapping the TPP would prevent farmers from moving ahead in global commerce, and imposing tariffs on Mexico would affect consumers equally if not more severely than it would affect Mexico.
So as a populist candidate was Trump just saying popular stuff on the campaign trail without telling us the finer details of his plans? What is more, did he withhold these details because he knew they would hurt his supporters?