Emily Van Kirk
Against all perceived odds, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States on Nov. 8. His victory was a shock to Americans and the international community alike, eliciting headlines such as “Trump Triumph Shocks World,” “Game of Trump,” and “House of Horrors.”
Not everyone is so pessimistic — after all, Trump did manage to take 290 electoral college votes, securing his presidential win. Moving forward, president-elect Donald Trump will likely reshape the progressive policy agenda that defined President Obama’s two terms.
Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” later changed to “rebalancing to Asia,” has quickly become a central focus of his administration.
This policy has two main focuses: increasing America’s naval presence in East Asia and the Pacific to counteract Chinese encroachment into the South and East China Seas and initiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, preventing unchecked Chinese economic expansion in the region.
Obama’s approach has been paramount to balance against China’s rise. The South China Morning Post quotes a political economist who predicts “As an outcome of the election we can expect months of global market volatility that will of course hurt Asia.”
On the campaign trail, Trump has threatened to end Obama’s TPP deal and impose a 45 percent tariff on China. The Morning Post rightfully points out the damaging effects of the president-elect’s policy proposal.
Increasing a tariff on Chinese goods would hasten businesses already heavily reliant on Chinese commodities and buyers. Trump has spent more air-time ranting about the costs China has inflicted on American civil society.
The Republic of Korea and Japan will have serious qualms with possible changes under a President Trump.
South Korea has benefited from American military presence and the effect U.S. troops have on deterring North Korea. If Trump instates a payment system for American military protection, Korea and Japan have the incentive to develop nuclear programs.
Beyond putting an end to the TPP deal and eliminating the strong U.S. presence in East Asia and the Pacific, Trump and his administration threaten nonproliferation treaties the Obama administration successfully championed.
Following Rodrigo Duterte’s successful presidential election in the Philippines, the balance in the region continues to be realigned, shifting toward China. If Trump’s promise to destroy the TPP and remove the U.S. from the region are legitimate, then it can be expected that Japan will arm itself militarily.
Evidence of this is already apparent: Japan has increased its defense spending and has engaged in a series of clashes with China in the East China Sea.
Now that Trump has been elected, he will need to draft realistic policy objectives that will serve his purpose to “Make America Great Again” while simultaneously curbing China’s unchecked economic and maritime expansion.
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