By Jordan Hansen
Northwestern has not had a great start, to be polite.
Losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State started the season, with a lone win coming against Duke. The Wildcats lost to Nebraska last week, despite forcing two fumbles and generally playing respectable defense.
Last year, Northwestern was a 10-win team and looked as if it might contend for the Big Ten West crown again in 2016. So what’s gone wrong? Let’s take a look.
Completion percentage: 53.6 percent (13th in the Big Ten)
Clayton Thorson has been off early this season.
He’s thrown 5 touchdowns with 4 interceptions and hasn’t been very efficient on the field. There have been some good moments, and he doesn’t throw a terrible ball, but his decision-making has been questionable at best.
Of course, it doesn’t help the team has given up 15 sacks, the worst mark in the conference. Sacks are a combination of things, but it usually comes down to three: receivers not getting separation, bad offensive-line play, and slow decision-making from the quarterback.
Northwestern has displayed all of those this year, which is not good for head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team. It’s also a matchup problem that will bend in the Hawkeyes favor. The defensive line and secondary have emerged as two of Iowa’s strengths this year.
Shutting down Thorson and the receivers will make the Wildcats rely solely on talented running back Justin Jackson, which did not work well last year.
Rushing yards per game: 108 (13th in the Big Ten)
This is not an ideal situation for the Wildcats to find themselves in.
Jackson sits at third in the Big Ten with 339 rushing yards but hasn’t been able to break out in quite the way he did last season. Some of this is because of Northwestern’s having to come from behind more often than not, but it is still far from an ideal situation.
Iowa’s rushing defense is among the worst in the conference, allowing 179 yards per game. Jackson only managed 10 carries for 30 yards in last season’s meeting. Bet on him gaining a few more this time around.
Thorson also has some running talent and despite being sacked 15 times, still has positive rushing yardage. Iowa struggles with mobile quarterbacks, which is exactly what he is.
Expect Northwestern to throw plenty of read-option at Iowa. Some of it might even work.
Red-zone scoring percentage: 42.86 percent (14th in the Big Ten)
Scoring inside the 20-yard line is critical to any successful team, and it’s an area in which Northwestern has struggled mightily.
For reference, no other team in the Big Ten has a red-zone conversion rate lower than 60 percent. This is a huge problem, which is surprising, considering how good a running back Jackson has been for Northwestern. Equally surprising is how ineffective Thorson has been near the opponent’s goal line.
Thorson has 4 rushes for 13 yards and has only completed 4 passes in the red zone. Not great numbers.
If the Hawkeyes can be solid with their backs against the wall, this could be another place where they can find an advantage.