The Daily Iowan’s Blake Dowson has put together a guide for the 2016 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby and predictions for the folks that want to make a little money on the event.
Everybody loves home runs. That’s why Petco Park will be the center of the sports world tonight, when the 2016 Home Run Derby takes place in San Diego a night ahead of the 87th version of the MLB All-Star Game.
MLB has switched its format in recent years, going with a seeding system to pit hitters head-to-head in each round and give them four minutes to hit rather than a designated 10 outs. Eight participants make for four first-round matchups, followed by a semifinal and final.
First Round
No. 1 seed Mark Trumbo (28 home runs) takes on No. 8 seed Corey Seager (17). Trumbo leads the majors with his 28 long balls and has had a big-time resurgence this season. He also has some experience in the event, having participated in 2012. Seager, a rookie for the Los Angeles Dodgers who should probably be the starting NL shortstop in the All-Star Game, will obviously hit in his first Derby. The nod here goes to Trumbo because of his experience. He won’t be as awed by the moment as Seager.
No. 4 seed Robinson Cano (20) will take on No. 5 Giancarlo Stanton (19) in the opening round. Both have Derby experience; Cano has hit in three, winning in 2011. Stanton participated in 2014, which will help his chances this year, but he hasn’t been the same this season thus far. Stanton is the most powerful player in the competition, but it’s almost more about endurance. Cano moves on, leaning on his vast experience.
A pair of Derby newcomers face off in the next matchup. No. 3 Adam Duvall (23) of the Cincinnati Reds and No. 6 Wil Myers (19) of the host Padres will battle for a spot in the semifinals. Myers will have the bonus of hitting in front of his hometown fans and his brother throwing to him. Duvall has emerged as a pure home-run hitter, not much else. His 23 home runs at the All-Star break are impressive, his .288 on-base percentage is not. Alas, this is about hitting home runs, so Duvall moves on and upsets the fans for knocking out Myers.
The final first-round matchup is between No. 2 Todd Frazier (25) and No. 7 Carlos Gonzalez (18). Frazier, whose brother also pitches to him, has made the finals of the Derby the past two years, winning in front of a home crowd in Cincinnati last year. Gonzalez competed in 2012, so he has experience as well. Frazier has proved he is tough to beat in the event, and he comes in hitting with more power this year than in years past. Gonzalez’s numbers have been good this year, but they have to be seen with an understanding that he plays his home games at a high altitude in Denver. Frazier will move on, and it won’t be all that close.
Semifinals
Trumbo matches up with Cano here. Neither hitter has a distinct advantage hitting from either side of the plate, as Petco Park has played basically even to righties and lefties this year. But the left field wall gets pretty deep in the alley, and Trumbo will put a couple on the warning track. Cano will move on to the finals.
Duvall will challenges reigning champ Frazier for a spot in the finals here. Frazier’s experience in knowing how to win the event will help him in this round. Duvall will probably exert too much energy in the first round, as most first-time participants do. Frazier will move to the finals.
Finals
After an upset in the semis, my prediction has Cano taking on Frazier in the finals. I like Cano’s smooth swing in this round. For a second baseman, he generates easy pop. Frazier will battle him, but Cano will get his second Derby crown.