Jace Brady
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Tuesday will play an important role in this year’s prolonged primary season. Both parties’ front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, will have the opportunity to distance themselves from lingering competitors and essentially tie up their nominations. While competitors will likely loiter in the political scene until the conventions, Tuesday will play a pivotal role in dashing any hopes of a contested convention in either party. If the day goes as predicted, candidates will then know it’s time for the critical shift to the general election.

Both parties have had historically tense primaries this year, and the parties’ nominees will be forced to try to coalesce party support heading into the general election. The Republicans will be led by the pugnacious Trump, whose outrageous comments and fluid policy positions have party leaders and members alike concerned. Currently, it seems Trump has little chance of defeating Clinton in a general election; however, if he wishes to have any semblance of hope, he must shift hard toward the general electorate.

During the primary season, Trump has been viewed as a populist candidate who has reached across the aisle and pulled Democrats into the Republican primary. For this reason, many supporters have purported that Trump will be competitive in deep-blue states this November. The reality, however, is much more bleak. In New York, one of the states where Trump is expected to compete, the Republican primary saw 1 million fewer voters than Democratic voters. Yet, erroneous suggestions that Trump could beat Clinton in New York seem even more frangible when one realizes he received fewer votes in New York than Ted Cruz did in Wisconsin, a state with under one-third of the population.

With notions of Trump winning Democratic strongholds in the general election dispelled, the Donald must refocus on states with friendlier electorates. Unfortunately, the turbulent businessman’s tribulations don’t end with a refocusing on traditionally conservative states. In an ABC poll taken in March, 37 percent of GOP voters claim they will not vote for Trump in a showdown with Clinton. This means Trump not only needs to reach across the aisle but also corral his own constituency. 

Thus, it seems that any prospect of a Trump presidency depends on a foundational change of rhetoric, policy, and organization. He must reassert himself as a conservative candidate and not as morally ambiguous. In order to gain the confidence of the party, he must recreate himself as consistent across issues and not absurdly xenophobic one day and pro-unisex locker rooms the next.

Despite his best efforts to refocus on geographically friendly areas and a makeover on policy positions, a Trump presidency seems unlikely (sigh of relief). He has spent the last several months attempting to intimidate competition, bullying protesters and threatening foreign countries, and he now expects a party to coalesce around him. His primary results do not instill confidence that he is a unifier — he has only received 38 percent on one party’s vote — and he has not yet seemed willing to become less brash moving into the general election. Every day that Trump fails to pivot toward November is one fewer day he has to persuade us all he is not as terrifying as he seems.