Jace Brady
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There has been mounting speculation about who the Republican presidential nominee might be if Donald Trump is unable to clinch the nomination. Several names have been floated, and one of the most popular has been House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis. However, on Tuesday, he announced that he would not seek the nomination if it became contested and suggested that someone who ran in the primary cycle should be the nominee.This creates a problem for the Republican establishment.
Many candidates perform better than Trump in hypothetical matchups with Hillary Clinton but were unable to accumulate support in the primary. While electability is an important component of selecting a candidate, nominees must also have grass-roots support to push them to the White House.
In 2012 the Republicans nominated Mitt Romney in part because they felt he was the most electable candidate. Rick Santorum made a strong push for the nomination but was eventually sent packing because he was viewed as too extreme to be a general-election candidate. Unfortunately, Romney was unable to drum up grass-roots support. Some may have disliked him for his religion or his extreme wealth, but the result was the same. Romney was only able to attract 1 million more voters than John McCain had in 2008, despite 2008’s low Republican turnout following an extremely unpopular Republican president.
Of course, a candidate does not need to win the plurality of the primary vote to be a successful nominee. Abraham Lincoln, considered one of America’s greatest presidents, finished the first ballot in the 1860 Republican Convention with a 70 percent delegate deficit. He was behind a senator from New York by the name of William Seward, who, like Trump, managed to alienate many factions in the party. By the third ballot Lincoln had secured enough anti-Seward delegates to clinch the nomination and go on to win the presidency.
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Republicans will likely face an extremely unpopular Clinton in the general election, which provides a strong opportunity to reclaim the White House. Historical precedent is on their side — Democrats haven’t held the White House for three terms since FDR — and picking the right nominee is crucial to garnering necessary support. If Trump is not the nominee, his supporters will be hard to console, however, Democrats will likely have similar problems assuaging Sen. Bernie Sander’s voters. Picking the right combination of electability and grass-roots support will be difficult, but it is not impossible for the Republicans to win the White House.
There have been several strong candidates who have run during the 2016 Republican primary process. Of all these, Trump is arguably the weakest and most likely to win the nomination. However, betting markets suggest a more likely outcome is a contested convention. Republicans will be faced with a decision to try to get Trump over the hump to 1,237 delegates or attempt to catapult another candidate to the nomination. Regardless of the outcome, if Republicans want to win they will have to find a way to put aside their differences and support the nominee. If not, they may pass up one of their best chances to win the White House for years. However, if they pick the wrong nominee it will make little difference, and Democrats will hold the White House for a third time for the first time since 1940.