Ben Simmons will top the 2016 NBA draft, because that’s how the NBA works.
By Kyle Mann
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It’s March Madness, which means NBA eyes are inching closer and closer to draft time. After potential No. 1 pick Ben Simmons and LSU were left out of the NCAA Tournament all together, we’re seeing a familiar scenario play out near the top of draft boards.
Simmons had been the consensus No. 1 pick for most of the year despite playing for a school that hasn’t been relevant to basketball since Shaquille O’ Neal, for obvious reasons. It was immediately clear in his Australian high-schooler’s game tape that Simmons was an athletic freak, possessing the size of a frontcourt player but the fluidity and ball-handling ability of a top guard.
He averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and a block per game on 56 percent shooting from the floor this season at LSU. He was as dominant as could’ve been reasonably expected, but because he was the leader of a team that fell short of even a low seed in the tournament, there has been criticism.
Somebody always wants to be the smart guy to figure out who’s better than “the best.”
We’ve seen it before, and we’re seeing it again.
Duke forward Brandon Ingram finished a strong tournament performance with 24 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals, and a block against Oregon, and now draft pundits are looking for any reason to anoint him better than Simmons.
But this, one, simply isn’t true, and two, is a waste of time, and it’s provable. We’ve seen this dynamic at work in the recent past, and we know how it ends.
The 2014 NBA draft was the year of Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, and similarly, the athletically gifted Wiggins was regarded throughout the college season as a consensus top pick until criticisms that he was also too passive became a “legitimate” knock on his NBA potential.
Parker, on the other hand, was a lethal go-to scorer for Duke, shouldering a heavier scoring load and more overall pressure in the confines of his team and proved to be a substantially more refined scorer both near the basket and away from it. Pundits wondered: Did he impress NBA officials enough to leapfrog Wiggins?
Nonetheless, when it came down to it, the Cavaliers decided the potentially transcendent athlete in Wiggins made him worthy of the top pick.
Teams will always elect to go with the player that most closely resembles what they’ve never seen before. Wiggins is 6-8, and rumors have it he has a vertical leap in the 44-inch range. Parker was also 6-8, but slower and slightly less gifted vertically. The choice was simple.
And this wasn’t the first time. This dynamic is decades old, and to differentiate top players, teams have continually shown that athleticism is valued more than refined ability. Sometimes, as you could expect, even to a fault.
Greg Oden dominated college hoops in 2007-08, and nobody could resist the idea of a 7-footer who could both bully people in the paint and get off the ground to alter plays above the rim.
All the while, Kevin Durant used his wiry frame, lesser athleticism, and more refined game to average nearly 30 points per game, 8.5 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Oden went first overall, and his athleticism disappeared along with his career as he battled chronic injury problems. Durant, on the other hand, has won an MVP and is on the short list of best players in the league.
Regardless, teams just can’t help themselves.
So, Simmons will be drafted first overall. People telling you otherwise just want you to click on their websites.