Jace Brady
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As the number of days until the Republican Convention dwindle, it becomes more apparent that Donald Trump is the likely Republican nominee. While it is possible to stop him, it will take a monumental effort and an electoral feat of historic proportions. Sen. Ted Cruz is the only individual left in the race, other than Trump, who has not been mathematically eliminated from 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright. While there are still more than 1,000 delegates left to be dispersed, today will be a defining moment in the war to stop Trump.
If the Republicans truly wish to stop Trump, which they regularly contend is their desire, they must coalesce around the only viable alternative. However, much of the Republican establishment fears and despises Cruz more than Trump. This past week, we saw several establishment Republican leaders endorse Cruz; however, these were half-hearted endorsements that may have hurt Cruz more than they helped. Mitt Romney claimed he would support Cruz in Utah but suggested it was only because he was the lesser of two evils. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham also endorsed Cruz this week, but he couldn’t resist adding that Ohio Gov. John Kasich would be a much stronger general election candidate. It seems the Republicans are slowly but surely warming to Cruz over Trump, but the support may come too late to stop Trump.
Kasich is another wild card that may prevent Cruz from obtaining the Republican nomination. Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from obtaining the necessary number of delegates required, and it seems very unlikely he will win the eight states necessary to even be considered for the nomination, based on Republican Party rules. His deluded belief that he will be president may very well lead to a Trump presidency, suggesting he may have reached an agreement with the billionaire businessman as running mate in waiting in exchange for staying in the race.
Today there will be two more Republican primaries, Utah and Arizona, which will play an instrumental role in Cruz’s attempt to derail Trump. Realistically, Cruz needs to win both of these states, especially considering that Arizona is a winner-take-all state. Polls suggest that Cruz will win big in Utah, but Arizona is a much closer race. While Trump leads in Arizona polls, Cruz has a strong ground game and organization in the state that could lead to an upset victory. If Cruz could win both states, he could walk away with 100 fresh delegates and significantly close the gap between him and Trump. This is especially important as we head to the Northeastern states, where Trump is likely to do well.
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Cruz faces a steep climb to the nomination, needing more than 80 percent of delegates to reach 1,237. This is an immense task that will be made almost impossible of if he doesn’t win Arizona today. If things don’t go the senator’s way, Wednesday we may see a shift in strategy to preventing Trump from reaching 1,237 delegates and force a brokered convention. There are nearly 200 delegates won by candidates who are no longer in the race, so if Cruz can get close, he can still stop Trump in the convention’s first vote if these delegates choose to support him. This outcome, however, will be precarious and dangerous.
Today, we must hope Cruz can defeat Trump at the ballot box and sweep what may prove to be the most super of Tuesdays.