Party-registration requirements may discourage some Iowans from participating in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.
By Aaron Walker
On Feb. 1, some Iowans will not caucus for their favorite candidates because of a rule: They must register to vote as either Democrats or Republicans.
“Many independents and no-party voters will not want to become a partisan, even if only for a short time,” said Associate Professor Donna Hoffman, the head of the Political-Science Department at the University of Northern Iowa. “As a consequence, they will not participate.”
Despite the ability to re-register as an independent or change party affiliation the next day, registration requirements are seen by some caucus experts as a deterrent to participation by independents.
People fear receiving emails, letters, and phone calls from campaigns asking for support and money, said Don Racheter, the president of the Public Interest Institute and former political-science professor at Central College and issues committee co-head of the Johnson County Republicans.
“There are all kinds of wild, untrue notions that get spread around about what happens if you register to vote,” he said. “But the reality is, if you don’t register with one party, they both call you.”
Iowa allows the purchase of voter-registration lists, which includes people’s names, addresses, and phone numbers.
According to the Iowa Code, the information can be used for “a genuine political purpose,” “bona fide political research,” and requesting registrants’ votes.
But a candidate’s appeal to independents can persuade Iowans without a party affiliation to commit to a party and caucus, Racheter said.
“If you have a very wildly popular person such as Donald Trump who appeals to independents, it might be able to motivate them to show up in one party or another,” he said.
In 2008 and 2012, the candidates who brought out the most new supporters also had the largest number of independents caucusers on their behalf.
Exit polls from the 2008 Democratic caucuses show then-Sen. Barack Obama had the highest percentage of first-time caucus attendees and those identifying as independents. He had higher percentages in the two categories by 12 and 18 percentage points, respectively.
In 2012, Republican candidate Ron Paul was 10 points ahead in first-time caucus-goers and 24 points ahead with independents, according to exit polls. But he finished behind then candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who is currently running for president again.
But candidates who do not stir up independents could be negatively affected, specifically centrist candidates such as Hillary Clinton or former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, said Chris Larimer, a UNI associate political-science professor.
“There are a significant number of no-party voters in Iowa, but a very small proportion turn out at caucuses” he said. “People who do participate usually feel very connected to and it feel very strongly about their candidates.”
This does not differ in most states.
There is no clear correlation between voter turnout and the type of primary or caucus in a state, according to a 2014 study conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Hawaii and Texas hold wide-open primaries in which state parties cannot prevent non-party members from participating, unlike Iowa’s partisan caucuses.
Opponents to open primaries fear situations in which members of one political party vote for the weakest opponent to face their candidate, Racheter said.
“If, for example, we have a presidential election in which an incumbent president is going to run for re-election, there are three candidates in opposition, and one would be the toughest, people who support the incumbent would have incentive to jump in and vote for the weakest candidate of the other party,” he said.
The move is known as crossover voting.
But a study conducted by the California Institute of Technology showed that only two of 14 primaries studied between 1992 and 1994 had more than 20 percent of a party’s voters choose an opponent in the opposite party.
The researchers published three conclusions: There is very little crossover voting in general in primary elections in the United States, the difference in the amount of crossover voting between states with open and closed primaries is not substantively large, and that the amount of strategic behavior on the part of voters in primary elections is small.
Bret Nilles, the head of the Linn County Democrats, sees Iowa’s caucus structure as a success of party building, not a deterrent to independents.
“Eight years ago with the Obama camp, there were a lot of first-time participants,” he said. “To a certain extent, the caucuses help bring people into process. Some people might think it discourages people from attending, but most of those who don’t weren’t going to go, anyway.”
Nilles said he sees the registration requirement as not only a benefit to the caucuses but as an opportunity for political participation and discussion across the state.
“The thing that gets lost in whole thing is that the caucuses intended for voters to get out meet neighbors and talk about whom they support,” he said. “It really does a lot from the standpoint of building up party membership.”