With the last Republican presidential debate before the start of the new year, rising Republican hopeful Ted Cruz has the most at risk at tonight’s debate.

By Rebecca Morin
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Ted Cruz could have the most to lose in tonight’s last Republican presidential debate before the new year.

The prime-time debate, which is hosted by CNN and Salem Media Group at the Venetian in Las Vegas, will begin at 7:30 p.m. and will include the top nine Republican hopefuls, including Republican front-runner Donald Trump and rising Republican hopeful Cruz. The undercard debate will begin at 5 p.m.

David Yepsen, the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, said Cruz is a “great debater” and believes the Texas senator can hold his own during the debate.

“It’s important to see how he holds up under attack,” he said. “He’s got a lot of people who are new converts. He’s a true conservative.”

Cruz has found himself surging in Iowa over the past couple of weeks, even surpassing Trump in several polls.

Cruz led Iowa with 31 percent in the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa poll released Dec. 12. He surpassed Trump, who was the first choice of 21 percent of Republican likely caucus-goers. Carson followed with 13 percent and Rubio with 10 percent.

With 400 Republican likely caucus-goers surveyed, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Tyler De Haan, the chairman of the Dallas County Republicans, said he will be watching for two things in the debate: how Cruz will handle his Iowa front-runner status and how Ben Carson will try to make his comeback.

“If we’re using NFL terms, they’re jockeying for a playoff position,” De Haan said. “This is more about jockeying their position as we kind of enter the last phase of the caucuses that will happen at the beginning of the year.”

Trump, however, is still leading nationally.

According to a Monmouth University Poll national poll released Monday, Trump is leading with 41 percent for Republican voters. Cruz came in next with 14 percent, followed by Rubio with 10 percent.

With 385 Republicans surveyed by telephone between Dec. 10-13, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Yepsen, who worked for the Register for more than 30 years, said Cruz could face the issue of peaking too early and believes another candidate could rise above.

“I think Rubio has the greatest upside potential,” Yepsen said, adding Trump has either “flatten or slipped” and Cruz has “elevated.”

Pottawattamie County Republican Jeff Jorgensen said in his county, which is located on the western part of the state bordering Nebraska, Trump is still the first choice of many Republicans — but Cruz comes in as a close second choice.

“Maybe as candidates drop out, Sen. Cruz will be in a good position to pick them up,” Jorgensen said. “Mr. Trump still maintained his lead here, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.”

Jorgensen noted that after every debate, the Pottawattamie County Republicans took a straw poll in which Trump came in first for all of the debates.

Despite what happens at this evening’s debate, it will be the last thing voters, and the media will have to go off until the 2016 begins, Yepsen said.

“This debate is important for everybody,” he said. “It’s going to be the flavor that everybody leaves in their mouths for about a month.”