With Floyd of Rosedale on the line, several statistical categories indicate why Minnesota comes in as an underdog.
By Charlie Green
The Gophers are a far cry from the 8-4 players they were a year ago. Entering Saturday’s game with the No. 5 Hawkeyes, they stand at 4-5, just 1-4 in the Big Ten.
The team has lost four of its last five and in that time has also seen its head coach Jerry Kill retire because of health problems.
Needless to say, it’s been the wrong kind of a turnaround season in Minneapolis, and several statistics help tell the story of regression.
Rushing yards per game: 141.6
For starters, the Gophers’ run production is a shell of what it was last season. David Cobb and his 1,600 rushing yards left for the NFL, and the team has not been able to replicate his output.
Last season, the group finished 30th in the country in rushing per game. As of this writing, it stands at 103rd.
Freshman Rodney Smith leads the team with 550 yards on the ground; he and his colleagues average 3.9 yards per carry.
The dropoff is forcing the Gophers to pass more this season. Although quarterback Mitch Leidner had more carries (126) than completions (122) in 2014, this year he has already attempted more throws than he did all of last season.
Leidner is capable of making an impact on the ground, especially after gashing the Hawks for 77 yards in last year’s game. Now, however, he doesn’t have the luxury of a great back to capture a defense’s focus.
Red-zone offense: 80.8 percent
Minnesota has dropped from 34th last season in red-zone efficiency to 90th so far this season. The team has failed to get a touchdown or a field goal five times in its 26 trips inside the 20-yard line — including in the waning seconds of its 29-26 loss to Michigan Oct. 31.
Again, not having Cobb, who rushed for 13 touchdowns last year, hurts the Gophers. As a team, its 11 red-zone touchdowns are penultimate in the Big Ten to Northwestern’s 9.
It may also have something to do with the Gophers barely scoring 20 points per game. That mark ranks second to, you guessed it, Northwestern.
Turnover margin per game: -0.22
Minnesota is losing the turnover battle in 2015. After finishing last season ranked 15th nationwide, it’s now 84th. The offense has turned the ball over eight times by fumble and seven by interception, while the defense has forced 13 takeaways.
That’s the biggest difference for the Gophers: they haven’t created turnovers at the clip they did a season ago. In 2014, the team recovered 15 fumbles and nabbed 15 interceptions.
On the flipside, Iowa has been exceptional in the turnover game, posting a plus-1.22 margin to date. In physical games with evenly matched teams, that much can be the difference between a win and a loss.
Overall, the Hawks have turned the ball over six fewer times than their rivals and have also seen their defense force seven more takeaways.
In nine games, that’s a sizable difference.
Third down efficiency: 36.7 percent
In addition to its other struggles, Minnesota has trouble moving the chains.
The change in third-down success isn’t drastic, but it’s worthy of a look. The Gophers rank 12th in the Big Ten with 17.4 per game, down from more than 18 a season ago.
Leidner’s options in the passing game are few and far between. Receiver KJ Maye is really the team’s only difference maker in that department, making third and medium-to-long situations more difficult.
As for third and short situations, a weak rushing offense doesn’t bode well for the Gophers, either.