Of the 35.7 million acres that make up Iowa, 30 million are dedicated to farming, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Unless you are underground, this will not come as a surprise. Across the state are vast fields and farms, sitting on some of the most fertile soil in the world, that drive a significant portion of Iowa’s economy. Yet despite these advantages, farming in Iowa remains a high-risk business.
With many farms operating on profit margins below 10 percent, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, taking on large operating loans, and depending heavily on weather and volatile markets, stability is never guaranteed.
While tariffs are often presented as a way to protect American farmers, they ultimately increase risk and uncertainty in an already fragile agricultural economy — making stable international partnerships a far more effective strategy.
Recent trade disputes with China illustrate this danger. During the trade war under President Donald Trump, China, a country that buys roughly half of all American soybeans, delayed and reduced its purchases. This disruption sent shockwaves through the farming markets in the U.S. and caused panic as farmers feared permanently losing the Chinese market, which accounts for one-fifth of soybean exports, according to Forbes.
When tariffs are imposed, they often trigger retaliation, leading to lost export markets, surplus supply at home, and falling crop prices.
For farmers already operating on thin margins, these shifts can be devastating. We cannot control the weather or how fast corn grows, but we can have a sensible international policy that will ensure our farmers have good customers and suppliers
“I’m not sure how tariffs will play out, and I don’t think anyone else besides the administration does. They are negotiating very aggressively, and there must be a plan,” Jeremy Baker, a northeastern Iowan farmer, said.
This sentiment is common among farmers, who already need support from the government to keep afloat, from market loss assistance to subsidies. Expecting the government to protect American interests abroad is a given for these farmers.
Tariffs and other aggressive measures are a poor way to protect those interests, however. The U.S. has serious competition in all sectors of the economy. China can buy soybeans from developing farming markets, which are willing to compromise to access external markets.
The tariff strategy could have worked as a bargaining tool 20 years ago, before third-world markets jumped into production, but with the increased competition in the farming market, the U.S. would have better results by making allies. Even long-term U.S. partners, such as Canada, have created closer ties to China in recent months, after American threats and tariffs.
Canada produces one-third of the world’s potash, a key ingredient in fertilizers. By escalating trade conflicts, the U.S. is risking shrinking the already thin profits of Iowan farmers. The government is aware of the risks and has proposed bridge loans to help cushion farmers in the short term.
However, with already sky-high debt, those bridge loans cannot last forever, and once trade partners abandon the U.S., it will be extremely hard to win them back.
This will both increase government spending and sink farmers deeper into government dependency. Is that the future we want? Baker is skeptical.
“I would rather farm in a world where the market decides crop prices, instead of governmental strategy, but I’m not sure if that is possible anymore,” he said.
I don’t think it is possible anymore either. The world we live in is one of competition with powerful command economies, where a disorganized laissez-faire economy can easily be manipulated.
The government most definitely should protect farmers’ interests at home and abroad, but this should be done in a risk-wise way, understanding the U.S. needs allies more than ever before.