This is an installment in a multi-part series. 

Iowa City grocery stores and residents have been feeling the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs over the last year on items ranging from beef, milk, alcohol, imported goods, and national brands.

Last month, the Trump administration announced that global tariffs, which are import taxes used by the administration as trade bargaining chips, would be increased from 10 percent to 15 percent. The decision comes after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that imposing tariffs is a constitutional power of Congress and not the president. The ruling came on Feb. 20 with the tariff increase arriving just three days later on Feb. 23.

University of Iowa economics professor Anne Villamil said the U.S. Supreme Court ruling will be very impactful to the future of tariffs in the U.S.

“The other thing about the Supreme Court ruling is that we’re going to get some of that certainty,” Villamil said. 

Villamil said the tariffs President Donald Trump can enact will be 15 percent maximum and will last for 150 days. From there, the U.S. will have to negotiate trade agreements with the countries that have tariffs placed on them. 

Villamil said Trump’s ever-changing tariff policy has created complications even before the ruling.

“Tariffs of 10 percent are not as high as they were earlier on,” Villamil said. “The president would impose tariffs of 25 percent, some days he’d say 50 percent on China, at one point they hit triple digits.” 

While the ruling will offer stability going forward, much of the uncertainty stems from past tariff decisions and the timeline for them. Tariffs, she said, tend to have a lagging effect on markets.

“It usually takes about 12 to 18 months for tariffs to filter through,” Villamil said, “So, we are starting to see some pricing pressure  coming through.”

For Iowa City grocers, they have been feeling these effects for the last year.

The director of purchasing for New Pioneer Food Co-op, Sue Andrews, said most of their products aren’t heavily affected because they are from local vendors. However, some national products have been affected. 

For national products such as General Mills’ Annie’s Homegrown organic macaroni and cheese, Andrews said she has not only seen price increases but also seen the size of the products decrease because of tariffs. 

“They’re shrinking the product but keeping it at the same price,” Andrews said. “That’s been reoccurring since the tariffs have been put in place.”

Andrews said the co-op has heard concerns from many customers regarding changing prices and sizes for items because of how educated the co-op’s customer base is. The co-op has tried to be as transparent as possible and works to have engaging conversations with its customers regarding the changing economics of food.

 “Sometimes we might say, ‘Do you want to try this local brand, that is going to support the local economy?’” Andrews said.

Andrews said the key for New Pioneer going forward is to focus on local and everyday low-price items to ensure customers can afford groceries. 

For John’s Grocery in downtown Iowa City, the business has faced economic pressure from tariffs because of the store’s international alcohol products, General Manager Chris Moore said.

“The import beer has been the most disappointing because I feel like the margin is skinny enough that a lot of imported beer has just disappeared from the shelves,” Moore said. 

Moore, who has been with John’s Grocery for 13 years, said the store’s imported alcohol selection is something that they have been proud of in the past and now it has become more expensive than ever to keep up.

According to an exclusive report from “Reuters,” when President Trump placed 15 percent tariffs on European Union, exports last July, it was predicted that prices of wholesale wine and spirits would increase by 80 cents per gallon on average. Some of the alcoholic beverages listed in the report were French champagne, Irish whiskey, and Italian prosecco. 

Moore said that the brunt of the tariffs has been offloaded on distributors and consumers.

For consumers in Iowa City, they have felt the brunt of financial pressures of the tariffs over the last year.

Nadia Nik, a second-year law student at the UI, said she has noticed prices rising every month.

“I definitely feel it, especially when I am paying off my credit card,” Nik said. “I have noticed, like milk and eggs especially, I just feel like they have never gone down, also ground beef.”

According to a February 2026 data forecast report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the price of beef was 15 percent higher in January 2026 compared to January 2025. The department also predicts the price of beef to increase by 5.5 percent throughout 2026. 

The national average for a pound of ground beef in January 2026 was $6.75, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The national average in January 2025 was $5.54.  

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To combat the rising beef prices, the Trump administration decided to increase its beef imports from Argentina in late October 2025. This decision drew criticism from U.S. cattle producers who said the decision would hurt U.S. cattlemen and women, and it wouldn’t lower the price of beef. 

The U.S. then changed the tariff rate quota to allow Argentina to import 80,000 metric tons of beef without tariffs. An import tax structure that places tariffs on supplies of foreign goods that exceed an established quota. 

When it comes to eggs, the same U.S. Department of Agriculture report says the price is predicted to decrease by 27.4 percent throughout 2026. 

Every item listed in the report, except eggs, is predicted to increase in price throughout 2026. The other items listed were pork, poultry, fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, sweets, and alcoholic drinks.

UI third-year business student Sam Jacobs has also faced financial problems with some of the same items as Nik. Jacobs said he has seen rising prices for all items and specifically pointed out eggs and milk, and it has had an effect on his monthly spending.

“I would probably say $20 more,” Jacobs said.

Villamil said the best practice to avoid rising grocery costs is to substitute your items. This can look like buying similar items that are cheaper or buying store-brand items instead of name-brand. 

Nik said she has had to start switching out her pantry staple items with cheaper store-brand items as prices increase.

Iowa City resident Jack McGrane said he has already been substituting food items due to rising costs of name-brand items.

“I tend to do that anyway,” McGrane said. “Especially if something’s a little higher, I’ll get a store-brand version.”

McGrane said he tries to stay flexible with his spending habits based on prices, but has still felt the financial pressures.

“Definitely eats away at the extra spending money,” McGrane said.