IOWA CITY, Iowa – Stephanie Gaitley is optimistic, and has the stats to back it up.
The last time her Fairleigh Dickinson squad faced off against Iowa, her husband told her that online predictors tabbed the Knights with a one percent chance at victory. Three years later, FDU returns to Carver-Hawkeye Arena, this time with a two percent chance, per ESPN Analytics.
“So we’ve doubled our chances,” Gaitley said with a smile. “Excited about that.”
Gaitley, now in her third season at the helm in Teaneck, New Jersey, remembers that 2023 meeting against the Hawkeyes. Her first game as FDU’s head coach wasn’t memorable in terms of the final score – a 102-46 drubbing – but Gaitley recalls the off-court moments, like meeting Caitlin Clark in the hallway and taking a picture with her. Gaitley’s sons begged their mom not to post any photos, and she capitulated.
One couldn’t blame her for being a little starstruck, as likely were the rest of her team playing before a sold-out crowd in Iowa City. Yet when FDU returns for a rematch on Saturday afternoon in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Gaitley and her players won’t be “deer in headlights.”
“I think we’re coming in with a different mindset because of the success we’ve had,” she said.
FDU concluded Gaitley’s first season 14-17 overall despite entering conference play with a 2-11 mark. Gaitley took over in April 2023 and said her team only returned five players. With limited options in the transfer portal and under-recruited high school players, Gaitley joked her squad resembled “the island of misfit toys.”
Nevertheless, everyone who could’ve stayed on that unheralded team did return. In the two seasons since, FDU lost a combined eight games, qualifying for a pair of NCAA tournaments as a 15 seed. The Knights posted a 30-4 mark in 2025-26 and rank tied for second in Division I in opponent points per game. FDU has won its last 22 games.
“It gives us a lot of confidence,” second-year guard Ava Renninger said. “Obviously, we know how to win. We know how to win basketball games, close games.”
Guarding Iowa will be a much more difficult test, however. The Hawkeyes – specifically 6-foot-2 forward Hannah Stuelke, 6-4 center Ava Heiden and 6-5 reserve Layla Hays – pose a considerable size advantage.
“They’re big and like to run in transition,” second-year guard Kailee McDonald said of Iowa. “I think that’s something we’ll have to focus on: getting back in transition, running, doubling the post, and getting out on shooters.”
The Knights possess lethal shooters of their own. McDonald ranks third in Division I with 266 made triples, connecting on a 36.8 percent clip. Averaging 25 three-pointers per game, FDU seeks to thrive beyond the arc.
“If they play off of us, I trust all our shooters on the court,” Renninger said.
McDonald and Renninger didn’t experience FDU’s first visit to Iowa and called the chance to play at Carver a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.” Gaitley recognized the excitement, but also knows her squad have witnessed the bright lights over the last two years in road trips to UConn, TCU, and Notre Dame.
While those matchups ended up lopsided, Gaitley said the experiences made the Knights cognizant of the realistic challenges of women’s basketball, especially in the postseason where upsets are rare. But given Gaitley’s comments on percentages, low likelihood is always manageable.
“I think the kids know what the challenge is ahead,” Gaitley said. “We tried to play eight five-minute games and try to piece it that way.”
Iowa and FDU play at 3 p.m. on Saturday, March 21, on ESPN.