Pete Ruden’s (27-5-1, $2,600) Picks: 

Iowa -6

This game sets up to be a major mismatch.

Nebraska can’t stop the run, which is exactly where Iowa makes its money.

The Cornhuskers come into this edition of the Heroes Game ranking 107th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, 124th in EPA Per Rush allowed, 128th in Rushing PPA allowed and 130th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

That’s bad news against a Hawkeyes offense that sits 20th in Rushing Success Rate and 21st in EPA Per Rush.

That poor run defense showed up last week against Penn State when the Nittany Lions ran for 231 yards on 5.9 yards per carry.

The Huskers have also struggled in their recent games against mobile quarterbacks. The Blackshirts gave up 86 yards on the ground to UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava and 62 yards and a touchdown to USC’s Jayden Maiava.

Mark Gronowski should be able to get whatever he wants on the ground here.

On the other side, Nebraska’s offense is at its best when its passing attack works. Well, quarterback Dylan Raiola is out for the season, leaving starting duties to TJ Lateef.

Lateef was decent against UCLA when he wasn’t asked to do much, but he struggled when he had to throw it 37 times against Penn State. He completed just 56.8% of his passes for 187 yards and took three sacks against the Nittany Lions.

If Iowa forces Nebraska to play in a negative game script, as the line suggests, I don’t see much success coming for the Huskers.

The Heroes Game has featured plenty of close games in recent years, but this one has the makings of a blowout.

Over 38.5

Iowa should be able to get whatever it wants on the ground here, so we should be in for something of an offensive explosion.

The Hawkeyes own a massive advantage on the ground. If Nebraska struggled to contain aerial attacks, it might not be much of a problem. But the ground game is Iowa’s bread and butter. 

The last time Iowa faced a defense that sat outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, it ran for 183 yards on 5.5 yards per carry against USC. 

Nebraska’s offense, meanwhile, ranks 22nd in Rushing Success Rate. Iowa’s defense hasn’t been bad against the run, but the Huskers can contribute to this total — especially considering Lateef can use his legs when necessary.

Plus, it’s not like Nebraska’s passing game is terrible. While Lateef is certainly a step down from Raiola, the Huskers rank 20th nationally in Passing Success Rate even after their last two games.

With Iowa’s offense having a key edge and Nebraska’s offense able to hold its own, I see this going over a low total.

Lock of the Week: Missouri ML -135 vs. Arkansas

The Battle Line Rivalry has always been a big game for Missouri head coach and Arkansas native Eli Drinkwitz. He’s going to want to win this one.

Much like Iowa, Missouri has a major edge on the ground here. 

Behind star running back Ahmad Hardy, Mizzou ranks 14th in Rushing PPA, 18th in Rushing Success Rate and 22nd in rushing explosiveness. Hardy alone has run for 1,403 yards on 6.6 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns on the season.

That’s good news for the Tigers, who will face an Arkansas defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Rushing PPA allowed.

Now, the Razorbacks’ offense can certainly keep up. 

The Hogs rank top-10 in Rushing Success Rate and Rushing PPA, as well as top-25 in Passing Success Rate. 

However, the advantage isn’t even close to as big because Mizzou comes in at 12th in both Rushing Success Rate allowed and Passing Success Rate allowed. The Tigers’ defense should at least pick up a few stops. I can’t say the same for Arkansas.

Add in the fact that Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula has returned from injury, and I like the Tigers even more.

This moneyline is still cheap enough for me to buy. I bet Mizzou at -130 earlier in the week, and I’d play it to -140.

Brad Schultz’s (20-12-1, $2,100) Picks: 

Nebraska +6 

This has been one of the weirdest matchups of the college football season for some time. Iowa has had the more-talented team in recent years, but Nebraska has always kept the game close despite winning just one out of the last 10 meetings. 

If the Hawkeyes had blown the doors off of Michigan State last weekend, then I might’ve considered taking the spread on this one. But after nearly losing, which Iowa team will show up in Lincoln? I would expect a better offensive performance, but the Cornhuskers have poured out their entire hearts into winning this game. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nebraska win this one outright, but taking the Huskers +6 at home is free money. 

Under 38.5 

This is a very low total, but if we go back into history, these are the final scores of the last two Heroes Trophy games – 13-10, 13-10. I understand every game is different, but seeing those scores makes me think we’re in for another defensive slugfest on Friday. 

While Nebraska is without starting quarterback Dylan Raiola for the remainder of the season, offensive coordinator Dana Holgerson is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the sport. That may allow the Huskers to break open a couple of big plays, but Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker will have his squad ready to go. 

I don’t see a third consecutive 13-10 game, but my final score prediction is 20-17, pushing this total under. Regardless of the final score, it should be a terrific game in Lincoln. 

Lock of the Week: Utah -10.5 over Kansas 

Lance Leipold had the Jayhawks rolling a few years ago, but Kansas is on the verge of missing a bowl game for the second straight season. Gaining bowl eligibility will be a stiff task this year, as it will have to beat a red-hot Utah team to do so. 

Though the Jayhawks are playing at home (beautiful new stadium by the way), the Utes are still alive for a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game and an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff. Utah has won four straight since losing to rival BYU on Oct. 18, scoring 50 or more points in three of those four victories. 

Kansas has had a hard time stopping anyone on defense this year – yielding an average of 26.4 points per game – and I expect Kyle Whittingham and the Utes to jump out to an early lead and keep it snowballing throughout in order to gain some style points for the CFP committee.