Pete Ruden’s (25-4-1, $2,400) Picks: 

Michigan State +16.5 

This is once again a tough spot for Iowa. 

The Hawkeyes got up for a massive game against Oregon two weeks ago and lost on a last-minute field goal, and then traveled to USC only to blow a 14-point lead and have any long-shot chance at a College Football Playoff spot tossed out the window.

Are they really going to be pumped to take on a 3-7 Michigan State squad?

On the field, this matchup will once again be decided on the ground. Iowa ran the ball well against USC, running for 183 yards on 5.5 yards per carry.

However, Michigan State will be a formidable opponent. The Spartans rank 26th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed, 14th in Rushing PPA allowed and eighth in rushing explosiveness allowed.

On the other side, MSU doesn’t have a spectacular rushing attack, but it has taken a step forward after handing the keys to Alessio Milivojevic.

The freshman has thrown for 439 yards on a 67.2% completion rate with one touchdown and no interceptions in his two starts. That includes a 311-yard performance in a tight overtime loss at Minnesota on Nov. 1.

While the Hawkeyes should still be able to move the ball and pick up a win, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Spartans keep this close.

I’d like to see if a +17 pops in the market before betting MSU, but that’s the way I’d bet the spread in this game.

Under 42.5 

I think both offenses will struggle to put points on the board in this game.

Iowa runs the ball at the seventh-highest clip in the nation, but Michigan State ranks top-15 in both Rushing PPA allowed and rushing explosiveness allowed. That means the Hawkeyes will need to stay on schedule to put points on the board, allowing the clock to tick throughout.

On the other side, Michigan State doesn’t do many things well on offense. 

The Spartans come in at 120th in Rushing PPA and 98th in rushing explosiveness. When it comes to throwing the ball, it sits outside the top 70 in Passing Success Rate, Passing PPA and passing explosiveness.

That’ll make it hard to move the ball, especially considering Iowa ranks 10th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and seventh in passing explosiveness allowed.

With the total in the low 40s, I’ll take the under here.

Lock of the Week: LSU -22.5 vs. Western Kentucky

If LSU cares about this game, it should be a demolition. 

This marks the final night game of the season in Baton Rouge, and, depending on the player, will be a potential showcase for the new coaching regime or transfer portal.

Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is coming off the bitter 100 Miles of Hate rivalry against Middle Tennessee and finds itself in the thick of the Conference USA Championship race.

This game does nothing for the Hilltoppers’ conference title hopes, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they simply try to get in and out with their health intact.

Defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s stop unit has been the bright spot for the Tigers this season, and they should make a Western Kentucky offense that can’t run the ball (95th in Success Rate, 126th in explosiveness) one-dimensional, especially considering LSU ranks 18th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 39th in Rushing PPA allowed.

I would obviously feel better about this if quarterback Garrett Nussmeier gives it a go in his last game in Death Valley, but the Tigers should run it up here.

Brad Schultz’s (19-10-1, $2,000) Picks: 

Iowa -16.5 

Yes, Iowa is coming off two heartbreaking losses. Yes, the Hawkeyes may be emotionally spent, but give me this spread all week long and twice on Sundays. I’m shocked that Michigan State has been this bad considering it went 5-7 and beat Iowa last year, but the Spartans have regressed badly. Aidan Chiles was a highly-anticipated prospect, but injuries and inconsistency have left him questionable for Saturday’s game. 

Redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic stepped in and played well in the loss to Penn State, completing 63 percent of his passes for 128 yards. Though Penn State has a talented defense, Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker and his squad will certainly be looking to bounce back after allowing 254 passing yards to USC. 

Iowa’s offense should have no problem getting things going, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawks win by three scores on Saturday. 

Under 42.5 

It’s hard to envision Michigan State recording enough points to push this one over, and my final 35-7 prediction will be just enough to make the under bettors very angry. 

Lock of the Week: North Carolina +6.5 

Bill Belichick’s first season in Chapel Hill has been a disaster, but this is a good spot for the Tar Heels here. Duke has been wildly inconsistent this season and probably should have more than five wins right now, but North Carolina is playing a rival at home with bowl eligibility on the line. Belichick rarely played as the underdog while coaching in the NFL, but I think he’ll have his team ready to go. 

Give me the Heels to cover this spread and win this game outright.