Pete Ruden’s (23-3-1, $2,200) Picks:
Iowa +7
Let’s get something out of the way off the bat: This is not a good situational spot for Iowa.
The Hawkeyes got up in a big way to face Oregon in one of the biggest games at Kinnick Stadium in years. Their College Football Playoff hopes went out the window in heartbreaking fashion, and now they have to face a ranked USC team two time zones west in a state they historically haven’t had much success in.
But Iowa matches up well here.
The Hawkeyes’ most efficient offense comes on the ground, where they rank 17th nationally in success rate. Well, USC comes in at 108th in rushing success allowed.
Quarterback Mark Gronowski also showed he can move the ball through the air, racking up 26 more passing yards than Oregon signal-caller Dante Moore.
While his numbers weren’t spectacular, he protected the ball and converted when it was needed.
On the other side, USC boasts one of the nation’s best offenses — if not the best.
The Trojans rank second nationally in both passing success rate and rushing success rate.
Well, Iowa sits top-10 in rushing success rate allowed and has been significantly better defending opposing aerial attacks of late. Just look at Oregon’s 112 total passing yards, Minnesota’s 109 passing yards, Penn State’s 93 passing yards and Wisconsin’s 82 passing yards over the last four weeks. That’s an average of 99 passing yards per game.
While USC will surely pile up more than that, it really speaks to the level that Phil Parker’s secondary is playing at.
There’s a +7 in the market as of writing, which is how I’d play this game this week.
Under 49.5
This number comes in significantly higher than the totals in Iowa’s past few games, so it’s time to take advantage of that.
USC may have the best offense in the country, but Iowa matches up well.
Starting Trojans running back Waymond Jordan had surgery last month and will likely miss this game as well, and I expect the Hawkeyes to contain King Miller, who has torched Northwestern and Nebraska in recent weeks. Those two teams rank in the bottom half of the conference in rushing defense, but Iowa is a step up in class at fourth in the Big Ten.
On the other side, Iowa should stick to the ground game against a USC defense that ranks 108th in rushing success rate allowed and 100th in EPA per rush allowed.
That will keep the clock ticking and force this game to go under a total that’s higher than any Iowa game has seen in recent weeks.
Lock of the Week: Arizona State -11 vs. West Virginia
West Virginia finds itself in a tough spot here, playing its fifth game in a row while hitting the road for the third time in that span.
Arizona State, meanwhile, is coming off a bye after dominating Iowa State on the ground.
While the Sun Devils will be without their top two offensive playmakers in quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, that didn’t seem to matter against the Cyclones.
Backup quarterback Jeff Sims torched the Iowa State defense for 405 total yards and four touchdowns, including 228 yards and two scores on the ground.
That will come in handy against a West Virginia defense that ranks in the bottom three in the Big 12 in both scoring defense and total defense.
Brad Schultz’s (16-10-1, $1,700) Picks:
Iowa +7
I’m not confident in Iowa winning this game, but the Hawkeyes will definitely keep this one close. USC’s defense has drastically improved since the Alex Grinch days, but Iowa still has a chance to get its ground game going, which will lead to plenty of opportunities for Mark Gronowski and the passing game.
Under 49.5
As Pete mentioned above, USC’s offense is more than capable of scoring points, but if there’s anyone that could slow down this explosive Trojan offense, it’s Phil Parker. Iowa has allowed just 13 points per contest this year, and if it stands, it would be the lowest number the Hawkeyes have yielded in Parker’s 13-year tenure as defensive coordinator.
Iowa will have to be better at stopping the run – they gave up 261 to Oregon – but I trust the Hawkeyes to bounce back and turn this into another defensive slugfest.
Lock of the Week: BYU -4.5
This is a wild spread. Yes, BYU did get blown out in Lubbock by Texas Tech last weekend, but the Cougars are playing at home in a bounce-back spot. Plus, TCU somehow managed to lose to a reeling Iowa State team at home last weekend.
BYU wins this one by 10 points. Book it.