Basketball season is here, and that means it’s time for the DI’s basketball coverage team to make some predictions. The Iowa women’s team looks to continue its historic surge, while the men’s team features a new-look roster led by first-year head coach Ben McCollum. 

ESPN bracketologists Charlie Creme and Joe Lunardi have both squads listed in their preseason bracket projections, and Carver-Hawkeye Arena should be full of energy throughout the winter. 

Without further adieu, here are the official 2025-26 Iowa men’s and women’s basketball predictions from the DI staff: 

Women’s

Matt McGowan, Sports Editor: 

Last season’s blowout loss to Oklahoma in the second round of the NCAA Tournament proved Iowa needed size to compete on the big stage. This year, the Hawkeyes appear to have rectified their height disparity and will look to the post to do damage in their up-tempo offense. Losing last season’s leading scorer and distributor in Lucy Olsen, not to mention top rebounder in Sydney Affolter, will hurt in the short-term, but the Hawkeyes have the replacements who provide a different but still valuable skill set. 

Georgia Tech transfer Chazadi “Chit-Chat” Wright isn’t nearly as tall as Olsen, but is an elite pass-first point guard who can still score given the situation. I don’t think Iowa will have a clear No. 1 scoring option last year like it did with Olsen, and that’s fine. Five Hawkeyes finished in double figures in the exhibition win over Ashland University, where Wright proved efficient on feeding the post on the pick-and-roll. Granted, there’s the exhibition asterisk, but the contest means more to transfers like Wright, who haven’t had the same amount of time to build chemistry. Another transfer, Emely Rodriguez from  UCF, established herself as someone who can make her own shot and attack both sides of the basket. 

In the frontcourt, second-year center Ava Heiden will be the squad’s most improved player. She can run the floor and is efficient with her post moves. Senior Hannah Stuelke can score around the rim, and in my opinion, the forward position is a better spot for her. A starting lineup with Stuelke, Heiden, and first-year  6-foot-5 center Layla Hays coming off the bench will help the Hawkeyes win the rebound battle most nights. 

The only issue this season is the schedule. Road matchups against No. 18 USC and No. 3 UCLA figure to be losses, as will an East Coast trip to No. 10 Maryland. While not ranked, Nebraska has proven a challenge, especially in Lincoln. A neutral site game against top-ranked and defending champion UConn will be an ideal measuring stick, but can’t be counted on as a victory, especially in late December when the season is still young. Same situation the Baylor game over Thanksgiving break. And call me crazy, but No. 23 Michigan State can steal a victory at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The last time the Spartans played in Iowa City, they only lost by three, much thanks to Caitlin Clark’s buzzer-beater. 

Ultimately, a 22-7 mark and another tournament appearance is nothing to be ashamed of. A Sweet 16 appearance is a reasonable goal, but with such a young roster, expectations will rise down the road. 

Prediction: 22-7 (13-5) 

Conference Finish: 4th 

NCAA Tournament: No. 6 seed 

Jonah Frey, Sports Reporter: 

Will no Caitlin Clark and no Lucy Olsen prove to be no problem for head coach Jan Jensen and the Hawkeye women? Jensen has spent the offseason preaching patience to Hawkeye fans, but there is reason to believe that this team could make some noise this year despite a generally young roster.

The Hawkeyes enter the 2025-26 season led by senior Hannah Stuelke, who has a great chance to shine this season. She leads the team amongst returners in points per game and rebounds per game from last season (12.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG), and looked phenomenal in the team’s exhibition game against Ashland University, totaling 23 points and nine rebounds. 

Iowa loaded up with a talented recruiting class including five-star guard Addie Deal, four-star center Layla Hays, and four-star guard Journey Houston. Deal’s arrival has certainly garnered the most excitement and rightfully so, as she looked very comfortable in the exhibition. Don’t be surprised if Hays and Houston provide some crucial minutes for the Hawkeyes off the bench down the stretch. Hays’ 6-foot-5 frame is the tallest on the team, and has the potential to be a great backup for Ava Heiden at center. 

The Hawkeyes also landed two experienced second-year transfers from the portal. Emely Rodriguez joins the team after averaging 11.9 point per game with 26.4 minutes per game  in her freshman campaign at Central Florida. Chazadi ‘Chit-Chat’ Wright comes from Georgia Tech after posting 7.2 points per game with 25.3 minutes per game in her first year. Both players will have the opportunity to earn plenty of minutes, as each impressed in the exhibition. 

Iowa’s non-conference schedule is tough, with three ranked teams in their first 12 games. I expect a few losses from the team before the new year, but come conference play, Jensen will have the team clicking. I’m not saying they’re returning to the Final Four, but this team has the talent to put the country on notice come March. 

Prediction: 21-8 (13-5)

Conference Finish: 4th

NCAA Tournament: No. 5 seed

Men’s 

Brad Schultz, Sports Editor: 

This is easily the most anticipated Iowa men’s basketball season since Luka Garza’s senior campaign five years ago. McCollum is one of the best basketball minds in America, and I have no doubt that he’ll turn the Hawkeyes into a Big Ten contender in due time. 

But will it happen this year? Probably not, but Iowa’s trio of Bennett Stirtz, Alvaro Folguieras, and Brendan Hausen should be among the best in the conference this year. The Hawkeyes’ depth is slightly concerning, but a scrappy bunch of McCollum’s Drake transfers – Isaia Howard, Cam Manyawu, Tavion Banks, and Kael Combs – along with a raw, but promising nucleus of freshman should provide the necessary grit and defense needed to compete at the Power Four level. 

And you can’t forget about Cooper Koch, who is fully healthy after missing most of the 2024-25 season with a medical issue. 

Iowa should be an NCAA tournament team this year, but that doesn’t mean it will be an easy road. A tough schedule will produce some early growing pains, but the Hawkeyes will find a way to grind out enough wins to return to the Big Dance for the first time since 2023. 

Prediction: 20-11 (11-9) 

Conference Finish: 8th 

NCAA Tournament: No. 8 seed 

Chris Meglio, Sports Reporter: 

New season, new head coach, and new roster top to bottom, and a whole new set of expectations for Iowa men’s basketball. 

To put it nicely, it’s been a lackluster last few years for the Hawkeyes under former head coach Fran McCaffery. His philosophy consisted of scoring a barrage of buckets while giving up a barrage of buckets plus some on the defensive end and hope for a victory. It didn’t lead to success, and as a result, led to a ton of vacant seats inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena. 

Hence, the hiring of McCollum. 

A man who has won 82 percent of his career games. A man who stresses defensive intensity more than anything. A man who has bled black and gold his entire life. This is the guy that has come back to his birth city to lead the men’s basketball program to relevance. 

His winning ways, along with the band of players and assistant coaches that followed him from his lone year at Drake, should see some early success in their first year of Big Ten basketball.

It’s important to keep expectations in check because, well, it is their first year of Big Ten ball. Unless this team comes out on fire out of the blue, there probably won’t be a Big Ten championship appearance. But I do expect a motivating Big Ten tournament run and an inspiring NCAA Tournament run that’ll put bottoms in the Carver-Hawkeye seats for years to come. 

Prediction: 20-11 (12-8) 

Conference Finish: 7th

NCAA Tournament: No. 6 seed