Pete Ruden’s (16-0-1, $1,600) Picks: 

Iowa -3 

I can’t put money on Penn State right now. After losing back-to-back games to Big Ten bottom-feeders UCLA and Northwestern, the Nittany Lions fired longtime head coach James Franklin. On top of that, quarterback Drew Allar is out after suffering a season-ending lower-body injury.

Penn State is in free fall, so Iowa is catching it at the perfect time. 

Freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer comes into Kinnick Stadium at night to make his first start. He has completed eight of his 11 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown while adding a rushing score, but this is going to be an incredibly tough environment to transform into a Big Ten starting quarterback.

Despite previously featuring a potential first-round NFL Draft pick under center and one of the best backfields in the country, Penn State’s offense hasn’t been all that impressive.

The Nittany Lions rank just 32nd in success rate and a ghastly 107th in explosiveness. 

Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense ranks 41st in havoc and caused plenty of chaos against Wisconsin. That’s not something Grunkemeyer wants to see.

On the other side, the Hawkeyes out-gained Wisconsin by over 100 yards last week. The offense seems to be finding its groove after a relatively slow start to the season.

I expect offensive coordinator Tim Lester to run Mark Gronowski a lot more now that he has had another week to recover from the injury he suffered against Indiana. That adds another worrisome element for a Penn State unit that might already be quitting on the season.

With the Nittany Lions in disarray, the Hawkeyes can cover this number.

Over 39.5

For the second week in a row, this total just seems too low. 

Iowa cashed the over by itself last week. Even without Allar and Franklin, Penn State’s offense is better than Wisconsin’s, so I don’t see the justification for this total ticking up only a few points.

With a ranking of 17th in Rushing Success Rate, the Hawkeyes should find ways to move the ball. Plus, Penn State’s defense ranks 60th nationally in explosiveness allowed, so a few big plays could flip this total upside down.

Iowa, meanwhile, ranks 58th in rushing explosiveness allowed. If any opponent is going to exploit that, it should be Penn State with the backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

There are plenty of paths to points here. I’ll go over this low total.

Lock of the Week: UNC vs. Cal Under 47.5

This should be a gross game on Friday night. 

The Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill has gotten off to a terrible start, with the Tar Heels coming into this game at 2-3 after losses of 25 and 28 points in their last two games.

Belichick’s team ranks 129th in success rate and 133rd in offensive quality drives. The rushing game has been particularly horrible, sitting at 129th in rushing success rate and 116th in rushing ppa.

That’s bad news against a Cal defense that ranks third nationally in explosiveness allowed and 41st in Success Rate allowed. 

On the other side, Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been electric in a very boom-or-bust way. The freshman has thrown for 1,487 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. However, he struggled against Duke last time out, tossing three picks.

The Golden Bears rank 77th in rushing success rate and remain outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate. 

I don’t see either offense doing much here. Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson projects the total at 40, so I’d take it down to 47.

Brad Schultz’s (12-5-1, $1,300) Picks: 

Iowa -3 

If you would have told me that Penn State would be sitting at 3-3 overall and winless in Big Ten play, I would’ve recommended you to a mental asylum. The Nittany Lions’ collapse has been historic, and now they have a backup quarterback, Ethan Grunkemeyer, set to make his first career start under the lights at Kinnick Stadium. 

Penn State still has tons of talent across the board, but the biggest question for me is its mettle. There are two things that can happen when a coach gets fired – the team rallies around an interim coach or it completely falls apart. 

The Nittany Lions have the talent to win the remainder of their regular season games, but it will be interesting to see how a national championship contender can respond after such a dismal start. 

I think Penn State will put up a fight in this one, but a backup quarterback making his first college start at Kinnick Stadium in a stripe-out is just too much to overcome. Iowa gets a big victory at home. 

Over 39.5 

I don’t want to just steal an answer from Pete, but this total is just too low. The Hawkeyes’ potent rushing attack could run all over a depleted Penn State defense, and I expect Mark Gronowski and the passing attack to get things going again after going through the motions against a bad Wisconsin team. 

The Nittany Lions have too much firepower on offense to not find the end zone, with star running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton likely receiving a massive workload to take the load off Grunkemeyer. 

Expect a 24-17 type of game at Kinnick Stadium this weekend to send this total over. 

Lock of the Week: Duke -1.5 over Georgia Tech 

I was the only writer to pick Duke in our On The Line picks, and as a confident ball-knower, I’m going to ride with the Blue Devils again. I’ve been really impressed with the job that Manny Diaz has done in Durham, and I think Duke is due for a signature win at home.

Keep in mind, the Blue Devils are 3-0 in ACC play and coming off a bye week. Before that, they scored 38 straight points on the road to defeat California. Duke is a good football team and I think they have enough on defense to keep Haynes King and this Georgia Tech offense at bay.