Pete Ruden’s (10-1-1, $1,000) Picks: 

Iowa +8

This game looks a lot scarier than it did before the season kicked off.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is playing at a Heisman level, racking up over 1,000 combined passing and rushing yards while adding 16 total touchdowns and no interceptions.

And after a 63-10 curb-stomping of then-No. 9 Illinois, the Hoosiers have now outscored their opponents, 219-33, en route to a perfect 4-0 record.

But let’s look at who they’ve played: Old Dominion, Kennesaw State in its second FBS season, FCS Indiana State and an Illinois team I was never a believer in.

None of those teams seems as good as Iowa right now. You can make a case for Illinois, but Action Network’s betting power rankings have the Hawkeyes 10 spots higher than the Illini.

Iowa should try to win this game on the ground because that’s where its advantage lies. 

The Hawkeyes rank 51st nationally in Rush EPA Per Play. That doesn’t sound incredibly awe-inspiring, but it lights up next to Indiana’s rankings of 91st in Rush EPA Per Play allowed and 136th — dead last — in explosiveness allowed.

Plus, it helps that Iowa’s offensive line has been dominant. Trevor Lauck, Beau Stephens, Logan Jones and Kade Pieper all rank first nationally in terms of PFF grades at their positions, and right tackle Gennings Dunker comes in at second. The O-line’s 97.1 PFF grade sits 10.6 points higher than second place.

Defensively, I’m a little more tentative after Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis torched the Hawkeyes for 330 passing yards. However, that came on 40 attempts with no touchdowns and one pick.

Indiana still ranks 118th in passing explosiveness and 78th in Passing EPA Per Play, so it’s going to have to work to put points on the board — especially considering Iowa has a Finishing Drives advantage on both sides of the ball.

If we’re ever going to sell high on the Hooisers, now’s the time.

Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson makes Iowa closer to a 1.5-point underdog, so I’ll take the Hawkeyes at a touchdown or better.

Under 48.5

Iowa has struggled mightily against ranked teams in recent years, so I’m going to ride that trend to the under here.

The Hawkeyes have scored a combined 44 points in their last five regular-season games against ranked opponents. That’s an average of 8.8 points per game, so I’ll make them prove they can keep up

If they’re going to keep Mendoza and Co. at bay, the secondary needs to step up in a big way. I expect defensive coordinator Phil Parker to get things straightened out for the most part here.

Plus, if the Hawkeyes want any chance of keeping this close, they’re going to have to keep it low-scoring.

Lock of the Week: Auburn +7 vs. Texas A&M

Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Tigers are coming off a tough loss on the road to Oklahoma, so I’m going to buy them here. 

Arnold played well against his former team, completing 21 of his 32 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions.

But this game should really turn on the ground. 

Arnold did a ton of damage with his legs against a solid Baylor squad in Week 1, running for 137 yards and two scores. 

Texas A&M should have no answer for his designed runs this week. In fact, the Aggies rank bottom-15 nationally in PFF tackle grading, rushing explosiveness allowed and Finishing Drives allowed. When the Tigers get into scoring position, they should put up touchdowns instead of field goals.

Plus, Auburn boasts one of the best receiving duos in the country in Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr., who should feast against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 130th in passing explosiveness allowed.

On the other side, A&M ranks 135th nationally in offensive explosiveness. That means there should be plenty of big plays for the Tigers and very few for the Aggies.

I bet Texas A&M at +7.5 earlier in the week, so I’d either wait for a +7 to pop again in the market or buy a half-point at -125 or better.

Brad Schultz’s (9-2-1, $900) Picks: 

Iowa +7.5 

Indiana scoring 63 points against then-No. 9 Illinois last week has many pundits predicting the same thing against Iowa, but they must’ve forgotten where this game is taking place. The Hoosiers have won at Kinnick Stadium just twice in the Kirk Ferentz era (1999 and 2007), and their aforementioned beatdown of Illinois could make them overlook a Hawkeyes team that is playing with confidence after a 38-28 comeback win at Rutgers last week. 

Indiana definitely has more talent in this matchup, but Iowa never gets blown out at home and is searching for a long-awaited ranked victory. Expect a terrific atmosphere inside Kinnick Stadium on Saturday. 

Over 48.5 

I never predict a Hawkeye game to go over, but this one just feels like it will. The Hoosiers boast the top statistical offense in the nation, posting 63.8 points per game. California transfer Fernando Mendoza has been a perfect fit at quarterback, throwing for 279 yards per contest. I think Iowa’s defense will bounce back after a rough outing against Rutgers, but Indiana will still find a way to put up some points. 

The Hawkeyes have shown a lot of promise in the passing game the last two weeks, and I think we see a 30-27 type of game on Saturday. 

Lock of the Week: Ole Miss -2.5 

LSU is ranked higher, but I think Ole Miss is simply the better team right now. The Tigers went on the road and knocked off Clemson to begin the season, but Clemson now sits at 1-3 and hardly looks like a formidable opponent. The Rebels’ schedule has hardly been murderer’s row, but they do feature wins over Kentucky and Arkansas. 

Tigers’ quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was expected by many to contend for the Heisman Trophy, but his offense has struggled, only crossing the 30-point plateau once against FCS Southeastern Louisiana last weekend. 

Taking Ole Miss -2.5 at home might as well be taking candy from a baby. Hotty Toddy!