Pete Ruden’s (3-0, $300) Picks: 

Iowa +3

I really hoped this line moved to a field goal after Iowa State’s demolition of South Dakota and Iowa’s slow start against Albany in Week 1, and that’s exactly what we got.

I feel good about Iowa’s run defense in this game. The Hawkeyes gave up 43 yards on 21 carries against Albany, good for an average of 2.0 yards per carry.

While Iowa State will clearly be a step up in competition, the Cyclones averaged only 2.8 yards per carry against Kansas State in Week 0. For what it’s worth, that’s a defense that gave up 35 points to North Dakota in what was nearly an outright loss.

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has certainly impressed thus far, but the Cyclones will be without their two 1,000-yard receivers from last year, so I’d expect a bit of a drop-off against an Iowa defense that has the potential to be extremely stout. 

Meanwhile, Iowa ran for 310 yards on 5.8 yards per carry in Week 1. Xavier Williams looked phenomenal, racking up 122 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. 

That should bode well against an Iowa State defense that ranked 94th in Rushing Success Rate allowed last season. 

When it comes to the passing game, I’m not going to overreact to Mark Gronowski’s Week 1 performance. The first-game jitters were obvious, and he still ran for 47 yards and a score, excluding sacks.

Action Network’s projected spread makes Iowa a 1.3-point favorite, so I’m going to take the points in a rivalry game that always comes down to the wire.

Under 41.5

The Cy-Hawk game has gone under this number in five of the last six editions of the rivalry. I’m going back to the well this year.

As mentioned, I’m confident in Iowa’s run defense holding up against an Iowa State ground attack that has been less than impressive against Power 4 competition thus far.

The Hawkeyes also ran the ball 64% of the time a season ago, good for the fifth-highest rush rate in the nation.

Defensively, Iowa ranked seventh nationally in explosiveness allowed last season. Considering Iowa State lost its big-play receivers, it will have to methodically move the chains to put up points. 

That means more time will tick off the clock, leading to a lower-scoring game.

Lock of the Week: Baylor vs SMU Over 64.5 

I’m going to take Baylor and SMU to go over the total of 64.5 this week.

With Sawyer Robertson starting under center for the Bears and Kevin Jennings leading the way for the Mustangs, these teams boast two of the best quarterbacks in their respective conferences.

Jennings didn’t go crazy in the season opener, throwing for 260 yards, two touchdowns and a pick on 22-of-30 passing, but the Mustangs ran at a quick pace of 20 seconds per play — up about 4.5 seconds from last year’s mark, according to Action Network’s Collin Wilson.

Baylor should also keep up offensively, as Robertson threw for 419 yards and three scores.

However, things get even more interesting when it comes to the Bears’ defense. 

Auburn toppled Baylor, 38-24, in Week 1, thanks to a Rushing Success Rate of 72% and 307 total rushing yards. After that effort, the Bears rank in the bottom 10 of FBS in run defense and PFF tackle grading. 

These offenses should find plenty of ways to move the ball while operating at a lightning-fast pace

Brad Schultz’s (3-0, $300) Picks: 

Iowa +3 

This game brings shades of 2021 for me. That game pitted No. 10 Iowa vs No. 9 Iowa State in Ames, which is still the only time the Cy-Hawk game has featured a ranked matchup. The Hawkeyes were the underdogs despite throttling Indiana the prior week, and most of the conversations in the national media were about how the Cyclones were finally going to end their losing streak against Iowa. With ESPN’s CollegeGameday on-site, the Hawkeyes rolled to a 27-17 win. 

Four years later, the opportunity presents itself again. Iowa State is riding high after a 55-7 win over South Dakota, while Iowa feels like it left the glass half-empty in its win over Albany. While Mark Gronowski struggled in the season-opener, his winning pedigree and previous performances in big games should foreshadow a bounce-back performance in Ames. 

The Hawkeyes always seem to find a way to win these kinds of games, so I’ll take Iowa to win outright. 

Under 45.5 

The only Cy-Hawk game that I can remember being a shootout was Iowa’s 44-41 overtime win in 2017. It’s been all defensive slugfests since then, highlighted by a 10-7 Iowa State win in 2022. 

The reason for these low-scoring games? Both the Hawkeyes and Cyclones have featured terrific defenses. Defensive coordinators Phil Parker and Jon Heacock always find a way to wreak havoc on the field and make the game feel like it’s being played in the 1930s. 

Remember those high-octane Bedlam matchups? That’s the exact opposite of this rivalry. I don’t care what either of these teams did last week. This will be a close, low-scoring affair. Take the under. 

Lock of the Week: Mississippi State +7 vs. Arizona State 

I’m a huge fan of Kenny Dillingham. He’s done an incredible job bringing Arizona State from near-death into a potential powerhouse in the Big 12. 

This is a tough spot for his team, however. Mississippi State will probably be a bottom-feeder in the SEC, but home field advantage (especially the cowbells) will help the Bulldogs stay close. Mississippi State is coming off an impressive victory at Southern Mississippi, while the Sun Devils are coming off a less-than-inspiring performance against FCS Northern Arizona where Dillingham admitted that he was out-coached

I’m still picking the Sun Devils to win this game, but it’s going to take a field goal to do so. This would be a tough loss for Brandon Walker and his beloved ‘Dogs, but a close loss will show that the program’s rebuild is on track.