The Iowa women’s basketball team returns to Carver-Hawkeye Arena on March 2 for their final game of the regular season against Wisconsin, who is 13-15 overall and 4-13 in conference play. The Badgers are the last Big Ten foe for the Hawkeyes before they travel to the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis.
The Hawkeyes are heavily favored against Wisconsin, with ESPN Analytics estimating a 95.9% chance of an Iowa victory, leaving only a 4.1% chance of the Badgers coming out ahead.
Some of this may stem from the conference standings for both teams. The Hawkeyes are currently ranked at No. 11 out of the 18 teams in the Big Ten, while the Wolverines, who Iowa outscored in three out of four quarters in Wednesday’s game, are ranked No. 8. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is ranked near the bottom at No. 14, barely holding a Big Ten Tournament slot.
Recent games have seemed to favor the Hawkeyes. Iowa has won three of its last five games, with victories over Nebraska, Rutgers, and the aforementioned Michigan. Both of the Hawkeyes’ losses in that stretch were to ranked teams by a combined 10 points.
In contrast, the Badgers have won two out of their last five contests, sporting modest triumphs over Penn State and Northwestern. But the losses were embarrassing, with the defeats to Michigan State, Illinois, and UCLA coming by a total of 73 points.
While Iowa has an average gap of five points in their last few losses, the Badgers have a gap of over 24 points. A 30-point blowout against the Bruins is particularly alarming for Wisconsin, seeing as the Hawkeyes lost to UCLA by just two points.
If the Badgers have any advantage in this game, it might be their individual stats. Wisconsin’s leaders are pacing Iowa’s equivalents in blocks, steals, rebounds, assists, and points per game.
While fourth-year Lucy Olsen has been one of the Hawkeyes’ most valuable assets, averaging 17.9 points per game, 6-foot-4 forward Serah Williams, with 19.2 points per game, is likely the primary focus of head coach Jan Jensen’s gameplan.
The Hawkeyes will have to play good defense to guard Williams, likely relying on such players as fourth-year Addison O’Grady and third-year Hannah Stuelke to match the third-year Badger’s size.
A more subtle but crucial component will be how each team handles the ball, namely how many turnovers they can avoid and force. While Iowa came up short against UCLA in their last home game, the Hawkeyes held themselves to eight turnovers, forcing 14 turnovers from the Bruins in the process.
However, Iowa is still averaging 16.1 turnovers per game this season, with fourth-year Sydney Affolter leading in steals with 1.4 steals per game. In contrast, Wisconsin is averaging 15.3 turnovers per game, with an average of 3.3 per game coming from leading scorer Williams.
Third-year Ronnie Porter is also averaging 1.6 steals per game of her own for the Badgers, putting the pressure on the Hawkeyes to control the ball during possessions.
The competition is set to tip off at 3 p.m., with coverage provided by Peacock and the Hawkeye Radio Network.