No
Watching the Iowa men’s basketball team this year has been rough — rough enough the fanbase is calling for 15-year head coach Fran McCaffery’s firing. An NCAA tournament appearance yet again seems impossible.
The Hawkeyes are what you’d consider an elite offensive team based purely off the numbers. Besides free throws — 17th with 12.3 made free throws, 18th with 18 free throws attempted, and 16th with 68.3 percent shooting from the line — Iowa is near the top of every offensive team statistic.
The defense, however, is a completely different story. And that story explains why this team won’t see the NCAA tournament.
But the Hawkeyes rank 11th with 32.6 opposing shooting percentage, 14th with 7.6 opponent threes made, 17th with 32.2 rebounds, and 17th with 16.2 opponent assists. Keeping in mind there are 18 total teams in the Big Ten, Iowa sits in 18th with 78.5 opponent points, 18th with 30 opponent field goals made, 18th with 47.7 opposing field goal percentage from three, and 18th with 37.7 opponent rebounds.
The way to win basketball games is to try and outscore the other team. But the teams that win consistently are the ones that stop the other team from scoring. The Hawkeyes don’t do that.
The question shouldn’t concern the NCAA tournament. It should concern the Big Ten tournament first — which looks unlikely when you look at the slew of ranked opponents in February alone.
Indeed, Iowa is on par to face five ranked opponents in its next 10 games, providing unfavorable matchups in a critical stretch for its postseason hopes.
Now, that doesn’t mean the Hawkeyes can’t pull off a late-season turnaround. But if there’s one thing that’s certain, it’s that this team doesn’t possess the makeup of an NCAA tournament team, let alone the Big Ten tournament.
Yes
As the infamous Selection Sunday draws closer and closer, it’s time we had a real discussion about whether the Iowa men’s basketball team can find itself on the right side of the bubble this March.
Many “bracketology” publications have the Hawkeyes on the outside looking in when it comes to making the Big Dance. According to TeamRankings, a website that calculates odds and predictions in college basketball, Iowa has less than a 10 percent chance of making this pristine postseason event.
This is not ideal, but there is some good news.
One of the key factors in improving your resume is gathering as many quad-one victories as possible before the regular season concludes. A quad-one opportunity is determined by both the location of the competition and the NET ranking of the opponent.
Iowa currently has a 0-7 record in these opportunities. But out of the Hawkeyes’ nine remaining games, eight of them are chances to earn quad-one victories and improve their overall resume.
Highlighting the remaining schedule are home games against No. 17 Wisconsin, No. 16 Oregon, and No. 7 Michigan State. All of these teams find themselves high-seed hopefuls and can have a direct impact on Iowa’s profile before Selection Sunday, should the Hawkeyes escape with a handful of wins and close games.
With that being said, I believe the Hawkeyes still make a push for a March Madness berth. A majority of the Hawkeyes’ most difficult games will be played at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where the Hawkeyes are 11-2 and average a blistering 89 points per contest.
If Fran McCaffrey can pull out a couple of gritty wins on the road along with protecting home court, the Hawkeyes have a good chance of going dancing one more time — and saving McCaffery’s job as a result.