Pete Ruden’s (13-22-1, $1,200) Picks: 

Missouri -3

This game is quite a toss-up with the most explosive options for both teams opting out. Missouri will be without star receiver Luther Burden III, while Iowa will have to make do without Kaleb Johnson in the backfield.

But if Missouri wide receiver Theo Wease and quarterback Brady Cook play — a big “if” — the Tigers should still have an advantage. 

The Hawkeyes will once again be without top cornerback Jermari Harris, and they haven’t faced an offense with weapons like this since. And if Sebastian Castro were to opt out, the problems go even further.

Although Burden and Wease are certainly one of the best receiving duos in the country, the best part of Mizzou’s offense is the ground game led by a couple of Sun Belt transfers in Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll. 

The duo has combined for 1,382 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season. Both backs should have plenty of opportunities to add to those totals against a Hawkeye defense that ranks 99th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed. 

On the other side, the Hawkeyes will be without Johnson, which is an obvious problem for an offense that can’t rely on its aerial attack. 

Now, Iowa could make me look silly because its defense and special teams will be the best units on the field if Cook and Wease don’t suit up. 

But given where we stand as of writing, I’ll take the Tigers to cover the short spread. 

Under 40.5

I don’t expect many chunk plays here with the top big-play threats for both sides opting out. The absences of Burden for Missouri and Johnson for Iowa will make both offenses look very different. 

With Luther Burden III out — and potentially quarterback Brady Cook and wideout Theo Wease — expect Missouri to rely on its ground game a bit more than its 56.6% rush rate suggests.

While the Tigers may move the chains from time to time, the Hawkeyes lead the nation in Rush EPA allowed, so big plays will be hard to come by.

On the other side, there are few offenses that rely on a single player more than Iowa relies on Johnson. With the Big Ten Running Back of the Year out, Iowa will have to depend on Kamari Moulton.

While Moulton began the season as RB1, there’s a reason he was demoted. In addition to Johnson flashing legitimate NFL talent, Moulton averaged 3.5 yards per carry or less in five of his 11 games this season.

I expect an underwhelming rock fight in Nashville, so I’ll grab the under.

Lock of the Week: Florida -12.5 vs. Tulane (Gasparilla Bowl)

I’ve wanted to back Florida in a bowl game for a long time now.

Gators head coach Billy Napier sat on one of the hottest seats in America midway through the season, but his team caught fire a month ago. 

Since losing to two top-five teams in Georgia and Texas in early November, Florida has rattled off three straight wins, including victories over rival Florida State, then-No. 22 LSU and then-No. 9 Ole Miss to keep the Rebels out of the College Football Playoff.

The offense has clearly found something with highly-touted freshman DJ Lagway under center, and he’s surrounded with plenty of weapons in wide receiver Elijhah Badger and running backs Montrell Johnson and Jadan Baugh. 

Despite facing arguably the toughest schedule in the nation, the Gators have clawed their way to a 7-5 record and have something to fight for here after missing out on a bowl last season.

Tulane, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction.

The Green Wave have been clobbered in two straight games, losing to Memphis with home-field advantage in the AAC Championship on the line and dropping the conference title game to Army by 21.

Since then, head coach Jon Sumrall has been rumored for Power 4 jobs (although he said he’s staying with Tulane), and starting quarterback Darian Mensah has entered the transfer portal and already committed to Duke.

Tulane has also seen starting defensive end Matthew Fobbs-White and third-string quarterback Kai Horton enter the portal. Horton’s desire to leave is important because it leaves no depth behind backup Ty Thompson.

Plus, running back Makhi Hughes — the Green Wave’s most important offensive piece — has struggled down the stretch. In his last three games, he has racked up 163 yards on just 3.6 yards per carry. 

Finally, the Gasparilla Bowl will be played in Tampa, giving a rowdy Florida crowd an easy trip after not having the opportunity to travel to a bowl a season ago. 

With these teams trending in opposite directions, I’ll take the Gators to -13.

Matt McGowan’s (18-18, $1,640) Picks: 

Missouri -3 

Say what you want about the SEC’s complaining, but it’s true that it’s the best conference in college football with the most NFL talent. Iowa is 6-8 all-time against SEC squads with a 6-7 mark in bowl games. 

While I don’t expect many opt-outs from the Hawkeye defense, this unit will be challenged by two experienced running backs in Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll. The two seniors each have more than 100 carries and 500 yards this season. These numbers are eerily similar to what Tennessee had last season with Dylan Sampson and Jaylen Wright. While Wright didn’t play in the Citrus Bowl against Iowa, Sampson ran all over the Hawkeyes as the Volunteers cruised to 232 rushing yards and a 35-0 victory. 

Nothing against Iowa’s Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson, but it’s clear the Tigers have the edge on the ground and should cover this line. 

Under 40.5 

Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson has only missed two quarters of action this season. In those 30 minutes, the Hawkeyes mustered just six points against FCS Illinois State. Suffice it to say that without Johnson in the backfield, points will be at a premium against a Mizzou defense that ranks top-30 in the FBS in opponent yards per game. Iowa’s unit ranks 16th in the category, so don’t expect Missouri’s offense to be pouring on points, especially with star wideout Luther Burden III opting out. 

Quarterback Brendan Sullivan will most likely start for the Hawkeyes, but his mobility might be limited. Plus, the Tigers rank 40th in the FBS against the rush, so the depleted Hawkeye ground game will face an uphill battle in Nashville. After a season of high-scoring affairs, expect 2024 to close out on a dud. 

Lock of the Week: Buffalo +2.5 vs. Liberty (Bahamas Bowl) 

For those who want to experience all bowl season has to offer, the Bahamas Bowl is at the top of the list. Taking place on Jan. 4, 2025, this contest occurs after both the first round and quarterfinals of the CFP. Even better, it kicks off at 10 am Central on a Saturday. I know what I’ll be doing – and whom I’ll be rooting for. 

Buffalo closed out the regular season with four straight wins, averaging 43 points per game over that span. Meanwhile Liberty is reeling from a 20-18 loss to Sam Houston. Granted, this bowl game is technically a year away from these contests, but the Bulls – as of right now – retain some talent. Linebacker Shaun Dolac has 159 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and five interceptions. Fellow linebacker Dion Crawford has 7.5 while edge rusher Kobe Stewart has 9.5. 

While not a great defense in terms of opponent yards per game Buffalo boasts 12 interceptions and 30 sacks, each ranking inside the top-50 of the FBS. Liberty will be with backup quarterback Ryan Burger under center after star starter Kaidon Salter entered the portal. Burger has only thrown 24 passes in his collegiate career, and the Bulls should feast on his inexperience. 

It’s also worth noting that MAC teams like Buffalo are 11-8-1 against the spread in bowl games since 2021, per ESPN. 

Let’s root for the underdog to ring in the new year.