Pete Ruden’s (1-2, $89.29) Picks 

Iowa -2.5

This game feels like the coin-flip of all coin-flips. The Cy-Hawk game has been decided by 10 points or less in each of the past six years, and with the total at a low 36, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case again. 

However, I see Iowa coming out on top by at least a field goal.

Defensively, this is one of the most experienced units Phil Parker has had in his 13 years as Iowa’s defensive coordinator — and it looks as good as ever.

Iowa held Illinois State to the fifth percentile or worse in offensive success rate, expected points added per play, yards per play, and explosive play rate.

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes offense looked… different. Iowa put up 492 yards of offense, averaging 8.1 yards per pass and 6.0 yards per carry en route to a 40-point performance for the first time in a season opener since 2016.

Now, I’m not ready to say Iowa has turned a corner — it’s going to take more than one decent half against an FCS team — but it looks like things are headed in the right direction.

Then there’s Iowa State, which only outgained North Dakota, 353-295. In fact, the Fighting Hawks racked up 174 yards on the ground compared to only 86 for the Cyclones.

Iowa State struggled to get off the field defensively (ND went 11-for-20 on third down and had a massive time-of-possession advantage) and didn’t look explosive offensively (eighth percentile in explosive play rate).

That’s not to say the sky is falling for the Cyclones — they simply took care of the ball and got out with a win — but I don’t think they’re ready for Iowa’s defense, especially after scoring only 13 against a less experienced group at home a season ago.

I’ll take the Hawkeyes at a field goal or better.

Under 36

I’m not going to let one half against an FCS team keep me from riding Iowa unders — especially when the Cy-Hawk game has stayed under this total in four of the last five years.

The Hawkeyes showed improvement, but this is still an offense that ranked dead last nationally in success rate, second-to-last in explosiveness, and 128th in finishing drives.

Even though they showed some positive strides last week, I’m not expecting things to click right out of the gate against a power conference rival.

Iowa State, meanwhile, struggled mightily on the ground against North Dakota. The Cyclones ran for just 86 yards on 22 carries and finished with a -0.16 expected points added per Rush to rank in the 23rd percentile.

I’m fully expecting another slugfest in Iowa City.

Lock of the Week: No. 24 NC State +8 vs. No. 14 Tennessee

The tough thing about the transition from Week 1 to Week 2 is deciding which performances are legitimate and which ones to take with a grain of salt.

While I think Tennessee’s offense is legit with Nico Iamaleava at the helm, I’m taking NC State’s scare against Western Carolina with a grain of salt. 

While the scare that lasted into the fourth quarter didn’t look great on paper, the Wolfpack thoroughly outplayed the Catamounts. NC State still put up 521 yards of offense and gained 80% of available yards while posting a 51% Success Rate (91st percentile), 0.22 expected points added per Play (83rd percentile), and 7.3 yards per play (83rd percentile).

Plus, it was Grayson McCall’s first game in offensive coordinator Robert Anae’s system. While he missed some throws, he still managed to pass for 318 yards and three scores.

The defense, which was still adjusting to losing star linebacker Payton Wilson, also failed to execute multiple game-changing plays that would have turned the outlook of this game around.

It’s possible that Iamaleava is the real deal and burns us here, but I’ll take my chances with a talented Wolfpack team.

Matt McGowan (3-0, $261.88)’s Picks: 

Iowa -2.5 

While the Hawkeye offense has had trouble in recent years against the Cyclone defense, I just don’t see Iowa falling at home, especially with a defense that’s bound to keep Rocco Becht and Co. under 20 points. 

The Cyclones may have only given up three points to North Dakota last week but yielded a 55 percent conversion rate on third down. To make matters worse, the Fighting Hawks ran 72 total plays to the Cyclones’ 48. Given this much opportunity and time of possession, Iowa will have plenty of chances to strike against an Iowa State unit that’s already lost one of its best players in linebacker Caleb Bacon. Any point spread under three is essentially a pick ’em, and I’m betting on a Hawkeye State. 

Under 36

Yep, I’m still not going to do it. The Hawkeyes scored an unfathomable 40 points last week, but all against an FCS opponent whose defense gave up more than 340 yards per game last season. Iowa State is not the same ISU as Illinois State. Even with the loss of star corner TJ Tampa to the NFL, the Cyclones yielded three points to North Dakota despite their defense being on the field for almost 40 minutes. Cy-Hawk games have been rockfights as of late, with four of the last five matchups producing less than 35 total points. This one won’t be pretty, so at least be compensated for your viewing experience. 

Lock of the Week: No. 19 Kansas -5.5 vs. Illinois 

It’s painful for me to write this because hating on the Jayhawks is one of my favorite pastimes. My brother’s out in Lawrence and every time the KU men’s hoops team falls, I can assure you I’m making a call to razzle him about how overrated they are. But this is football, and while I can just hear my brother yapping about how quarterback Jalon Daniels is going to win the Heisman, I can’t deny that the Jayhawks have an explosive offense. 

Running back Devin Neal is an absolute beast, piling up 112 yards and two scores on only eight carries last week. The 5-foot-11, 215-pound senior has averaged at least six yards per carry in the last two seasons, and is a factor in the receiving game to boot, piling up 374 yards in that timeframe. 

Illinois, on the other hand, doesn’t have Dick Butkus anchoring its defense anymore. The Illini ranked 12th in the Big Ten in 2023 in opponent points per game. The unit’s performance against the run was just as awful, conceding 149.2 yards on the ground per contest. 

Even with a home-field advantage at Champaign, expect this year’s matchup to be similar to what happened last year – a 34-23 KU victory.