Wisconsin -1.5

A 1.5-point spread is no spread at all. Normally, under circumstances like these, I’d bet the moneyline and stay away from the spread.

As of Wednesday morning, my bet would’ve been Wisconsin -115. But for the sake of this particular game, I’ll take the Badgers plus the 1.5 points on Saturday.

Whichever team wins on Saturday will do so by more than three points — I guarantee it. I suspect Saturday will be a classic kicking derby between the Hawkeyes and Badgers. This game certainly won’t be a shootout because Iowa and Wisconsin have inept offenses and solid defenses. In fact, I’m not confident either team will score a touchdown.

It sounds bizarre, but Iowa has already played in two games without a touchdown by either team this season. Saturday’s contest has a chance to be the third touchdown-less Hawkeye game of the year.

Under 35.5

This game has all the makings of a classic Big Ten West showdown. And I’m sure the Sickos Committee will be watching and tweeting about Iowa-Wisconsin on Saturday.

When the Sickos Committee takes interest in a game, that’s usually good news for under bettors. The Sickos Committee and under bettors both love punts, fumbles, interceptions, and miscues.

Iowa and Wisconsin’s offenses rank 129th and 79th in the nation, respectively. The Hawkeyes and Badgers’ defenses are third and 23rd in the country, respectively. To me, that seems like a recipe for carnage.

The forecasted 34-degree temperatures won’t help either offense player better on Saturday. I know both of these teams are used to colder weather, but that doesn’t mean their offenses like wintery conditions.

I think this under will hit without any doubt on Saturday. I’d probably be comfortable playing it down to 29.5.

Lock of the Week: Syracuse +6.5

I think oddsmakers are letting Florida State’s No. 23 College Football Playoff and No. 25 AP rankings influence this spread too much. I’m not buying what the Seminoles are selling.

The Orange have a better resume than the Seminoles this season. But because Florida State is considered a premiere program by national pundits, it’s favored to beat Syracuse by a whopping 6.5 points.

I’m not convinced Syracuse will win outright, but I do think this spread is inflated and the Orange will cover. Both Florida State and Syracuse have played North Carolina State this year. The Seminoles lost to the Wolfpack, 19-17, on Oct. 8. A week later, Syracuse beat North Carolina State, 24-9.

That game convinces me that Syracuse will at least cover. After all, Syracuse and Florida State have identical 6-3 overall records. And the Orange is actually ahead of the Seminoles in the conference standings.

I think oddsmakers are paying too much attention to ranking and not resume. Resume should always outweigh ranking — even if one team is ranked and the other isn’t. I’m taking the Orange to cover because I like their resume more than the Seminoles’ rankings.